Now we have both the squads, one coach mouthing off in a presser and the other surely about to arrange an emergency presser about something completely unrelated/Pollard's injury. Made a mug of myself doing this last week, so an attempt to be a bit more data driven (lol). Probably we can expect the Springboks to make far fewer errors, meaning that their 22 conversion rate and point average should travel somewhere back close to 5. Probably we can also expect the All Blacks to be a bit better in the scrum and give away fewer penalties, compared to last week. So, call it 8 entries for Boks (vs 10)? I think we had 7 or 8, which you might similarly drop to 6. I think we had an average points per entry of just over 4 in the first three tests of '26, but someone please check that cos I cant find it anywhere. So overall, that would produce a scoreline something like SA 40-25 NZ. However, it's forecast for rain, which should lower the score and perhaps make everything tighter. So add a vibes-based weather adjustment and I land somewhere like SA 28-20 NZ. Your thoughts below   submitted by   /u/meohmyenjoyingthat [link]   [comments]