Gold | Bearish continuation & downside potentialGoldOANDA:XAUUSDYOUSUF-ANALYTICSGold | Bearish continuation & downside potential Fundamental Gold is showing signs of exhaustion after its strong historical rally. A firmer U.S. dollar and profit-taking near the highs are creating renewed downside pressure. Market attention is now heavily focused on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, where investors are looking for clearer signals on inflation, interest rates and the Fed’s future policy reaction. A more hawkish policy message, particularly if Warsh emphasizes the need to respond to persistent inflation with higher rates, could strengthen the dollar and weigh on gold. Technical Gold is currently trading below the rising trendline, suggesting that the previous bullish structure is losing momentum. Rejection from the 4,632–4,655 resistance zone could strengthen the bearish case. A sustained break below 4,545 would expose the next downside levels around 4,480 and potentially 4,420. SMC View From an SMC perspective, the recent rally appears vulnerable to a liquidity distribution phase after taking liquidity around the previous highs. Failure to reclaim the 4,632–4,655 supply zone could indicate bearish displacement and a shift toward lower liquidity pools. A clean break below 4,545 would strengthen the bearish structure and increase the probability of a deeper retracement. Trading Scenario Bearish scenario: Rejection from 4,632–4,655 followed by bearish displacement could open the path toward 4,545 and 4,480. If 4,545 breaks with strong selling pressure, the next areas to monitor are 4,420 and potentially 4,200. Bullish alternative: A strong reclaim and sustained close above 4,655 could invalidate the immediate bearish setup and reopen the upside toward the previous highs. Key Levels to Watch Resistance: 4,632 | 4,655 Support: 4,545 | 4,480 Downside levels: 4,420 | 4,200 Bearish invalidation: 4,684 Invalidation A sustained break and acceptance above 4,684 would invalidate the bearish continuation thesis and suggest that buyers have regained control. Professional Insights The key here is confirmation rather than chasing the downside. Price is approaching a major decision area, while the Jackson Hole event could increase volatility. I would watch how gold reacts around 4,632–4,655 and whether sellers can produce a decisive break below 4,545. Risk Management Avoid entering during high-volatility news spikes. Wait for confirmation around the key levels, use controlled position sizing, and define the invalidation level before taking any position. Disclaimer This analysis is shared for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.