$VELVET UPDATEVelvet / USDTMEXC:VELVETUSDTcoinpediamarketsVELVETUSDT is coming off one of the more violent boom-bust cycles we've seen in this cap tier — a parabolic move from ~$0.50 to $2.15 in late June, followed by an eight-week grind lower that's erased nearly the entire advance. Price is now printing $0.108, sitting at the extreme lower boundary of a broad descending structure that's been building since the top. Structurally, what we're looking at is a large falling wedge/descending triangle, with a secondary symmetrical triangle nested inside it that resolved bullishly in mid-August — price broke out toward $1.20 on the 15th–16th. That breakout, however, failed to hold. What followed was a sharp markdown that took out the wedge's lower trendline entirely on August 24-25, with a single red candle wiping out nearly 80% of value in hours. Reading the pattern This is the key nuance I'd flag: a falling wedge is textbook bullish when it resolves upward. This one didn't — it broke down through support instead. That inverts the usual playbook. What we're left with isn't a coiled reversal setup; it's a trend-following breakdown that's now testing uncharted low ground with essentially no historical support beneath it on this timeframe. The mild green candle on the current bar (+0.61%) reads as a reflexive bounce off an oversold extreme rather than a change in trend character. Bounces off broken support are common — they're also frequently sold into, since former support (~$0.15–0.20) now acts as the first real resistance overhead. What I'd watch from here Bearish continuation case: if $0.10–0.105 fails to hold as a floor, there's no defined support below — price discovery to new lows is the path of least resistance. Watch for a close below $0.105 on rising volume as confirmation. Relief bounce case: a reclaim of $0.15–0.20 on strong volume would be the first sign buyers are stepping back in with conviction. Until that level is reclaimed, any move up is more likely a bounce than a reversal. Volume is the tell either way. This entire move has been driven by thin, momentum-chasing volume — confirmation (in either direction) needs to come with real participation, not just a wick. Bottom line Structurally, the token is in a confirmed downtrend with a failed reversal pattern behind it. That doesn't mean a bounce can't happen — oversold conditions this extreme often produce sharp, fast relief rallies — but the trend remains down until price reclaims the broken wedge support turned resistance. This is a high-volatility, high-risk name; position sizing and stop discipline matter more here than the pattern name itself.