NZD/USD — Bullish Short/Medium-Term BiasNZD/USDOANDA:NZDUSDLeox_MarketsMy outlook remains bullish on NZD/USD in the short/medium term. New Zealand inflation remains elevated, limiting the RBNZ's ability to turn aggressively dovish ahead of its September 2 policy decision. COT positioning is still net bearish NZD at −32.6K contracts, but the important signal is the change: net positioning improved by roughly +7K contracts in one week, with speculators adding longs and cutting shorts. Heavy existing short positioning also leaves room for a short-covering move if NZD fundamentals continue improving. The main risk is USD strength. U.S. PCE/GDP data and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech could significantly move rate expectations this week. A softer USD and lower Treasury yields would reinforce the bullish NZD/USD scenario.