Gold (GC) Analysis, Key-Zones, Setup for Tue (Aug 25)Gold FuturesCOMEX:GC1!MyAlgoIndexBias: Bullish, tempered by overbought momentum into a data-heavy midweek. Gold settled Monday at 4,697.8, up 17.2 points or 0.37 percent, after tagging a fresh three-month high at 4,738.5 and fading the push into the close. The 86.7-point session range left a rejection wick at the highs: buyers were strong enough to print the high but not strong enough to hold it into the settle. Post-settlement electronic trade recovered toward 4,710, so the rejection did not extend into a breakdown, and the session reads as a firm hold near the highs rather than a decisive breakout. The macro backdrop was two-sided and, on net, favored the metal. An escalating campaign to isolate Iran and military-force language around the Strait of Hormuz kept a safe-haven bid under price, while a run of soft US data, a negative payrolls print, contracting retail sales and a sharp drop in oil, leaned the market toward an easier policy path. The dollar caught its own haven bid on the same headlines and gold rose anyway, a telling sign the tailwinds currently outweigh the headwind. Structure is unambiguous: price holds a full bullish moving-average alignment above the 200-day near 4,632 and the 20-day at 4,365, directional-index readings show a dominant uptrend, and the multi-indicator composite reads a strong buy. Dealer positioning, read through the gold ETF proxy, shows net negative gamma, a condition that tends to amplify trends rather than pin price, with an options-implied daily move near 75 points on the metal. The offset is stretch: the 9-day relative-strength index is above 80 and the 14-day above 74, both overbought, and extended readings into fresh highs raise the cost of chasing. Tuesday itself is data-light, with only consumer confidence at 10:00 ET, but the week's first-order inflation report lands Wednesday at 08:30 ET, one session later. The higher-probability plan buys pullbacks into the 4,662 to 4,645 support shelf with the trend rather than chasing the overbought push into resistance, reserving continuation entries for a decisive move through 4,738.5. Resistance: 4,850 to 4,795 (upper extension band) 4,770 (second pivot resistance) 4,751 (computed target) 4,738 (Monday high, breakout reference) 4,725 (first pivot resistance) Support: 4,680 (prior settle) 4,662 to 4,645 (retracement and central pivot confluence) 4,600 (first pivot support) 4,565 (lower demand shelf) 4,520 (second pivot support) Primary Setup: Long with the trend on a pullback into the 4,662 to 4,645 support confluence, protective exit below 4,600, targets 4,725, then 4,738, then 4,751. Alternate expression is breakout continuation on a decisive hold above 4,738.5, targeting 4,751 then 4,770 with a protective exit back below 4,725. Stand aside on directionless trade between 4,645 and 4,738, and reduce size ahead of Wednesday's inflation release, where a single print can reprice the complex. A decisive close beneath 4,600 breaks the near-term structure and defers the long case.