The Numbers Game: Man Utd out to avoid unwanted history against Ipswich

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No team has ever started a Premier League season by losing back-to-back games against promoted clubs.But that is a possibility for Manchester United this weekend, as they welcome Ipswich Town to Old Trafford, off the back of a humiliating 2-0 defeat at Hull City.And Michael Carrick's side will be up against a side with plenty of confidence, after the Tractor Boys marked their return to the big time with a 2-1 win over Sunderland. Here, using Opta insights, we run through all the key storylines and players to watch ahead of Sunday's late kick-off at the Theatre of Dreams.What's expected? Despite United's dire start to the season, the supercomputer is forecasting them to get back on track this weekend.Across 10,000 data-led simulations of Sunday's game, United were victorious in 66.4% of scenarios, with Ipswich's chances of an away win rated at 15.3%.A point would still represent a positive result for the Tractor Boys, though, and 18.3% of our simulations saw them earn a draw.Man Utd are unbeaten in their last eight home league games against Ipswich (W6 D2), winning the last four by an aggregate score of 18-2.When the Tractor Boys were last in the Premier League, in 2024-25, they played out a 1-1 draw at Portman Road in Ruben Amorim's first game in charge of the Red Devils.Their meeting at Old Trafford, later in that campaign, saw Harry Maguire score the decisive goal in a 3-2 victory for United, who also had Patrick Dorgu sent off.Ipswich are winless in their last seven Premier League games against United (D2 L5) since a 3-2 home win in September 1994.The first game in this winless run was a 9-0 defeat at Old Trafford in March 1995, which is still the joint-record loss in Premier League history (Southampton have also lost 9-0 twice).Ipswich were, however, the last team to beat United at Old Trafford in a league game where the Red Devils led at half-time, 2-1 in May 1984. Since then, United are unbeaten in 400 such games (W365 D35).Pressure already on CarrickIt was a familiar sinking feeling for United last week, as they made a losing start to a Premier League season for the fourth time in the last seven years.But the nature of their latest matchday-one defeat – against a team widely predicted to finish bottom of the table – set alarm bells ringing for supporters of Carrick's side.That result came after a broadly positive pre-season for the Red Devils, who picked up the most points in the Premier League between Carrick taking charge on an interim basis in January and the end of last season.They further strengthened their midfield options this week, finalising a £70m move for Carlos Baleba, though it remains to be seen whether the former Brighton man will be thrown straight in for his debut this weekend, due to injury. Baleba endured an inconsistent 2025-26 season, but he made his name as a dynamic ball carrier from deep in 2024-25, when his 2.9 progressive carries per 90 minutes were the fourth-most among defensive midfielders in the Premier League.United's new-look midfield pairing of Youri Tielemans and Andrey Santos struggled against Hull, but things also weren't pretty in either box. United conceded two set-piece goals in the first 45 minutes of a Premier League game for the first time since December 2023, when they did so against Aston Villa.And in attack, the Red Devils fired off 21 shots, 15 of them from inside the box, without beating Konstantinos Tzolakis in the Hull net.United have failed to score on MD1 in back-to-back Premier League seasons despite having a combined 43 shots across those two matches (also 22 against Arsenal last season).Benjamin Sesko could be in line for a recall in attack, with Matheus Cunha enduring a frustrating outing last week, while Marcus Rashford could also come into Carrick's starting XI.And make no mistake, we may only be a few days into the season, but the pressure is already on.Throughout English top-flight history, only three teams have ever started a campaign by losing back-to-back games against promoted teams: Everton in 1902-03, Sheffield United in 1929-30, and Bristol City in 1977-78.And Carrick has a poor record against Premier League new boys since turning his hand to management.He is winless in his three Premier League meetings with newly promoted Premier League clubs (D1 L2), averaging 0.33 points in those matches, compared to his 2.47 points-per-game average against non-promoted teams with United (P17 W13 D3 L1).New-look Ipswich gunning for perfect startHaving been relegated in dismal fashion when they were last at the top table in 2024-25, Ipswich appear to have taken a leaf out of the Sunderland book this campaign.After watching the Black Cats qualify for Europe following an extraordinarily busy transfer window this time last year, Ipswich have also set about a full-scale rebuild.Gary O'Neil's first competitive Ipswich lineup featured seven new arrivals, and one of those, former Toulouse striker Emersonn, marked his debut with a goal.The Brazilian is the first player to score on his overall Premier League debut while representing Ipswich since Fabian Wilnis, who did so against United in August 2000.And he could now become the first player to score in his first two Premier League appearances for the club since Adam Tanner in January 1995.It was one of the heroes of Ipswich's promotion-winning campaign, Jack Clarke, who scored their 90th-minute winner, but Ipswich seem to have understood there is little room for sentimentality when stepping up to this level.But one area in which they are aspiring to a level of consistency is at the back, with Issa Diop the only member of last week's starting back four who was not involved in their Championship campaign in 2025-26.If Ipswich are to make it two wins from two, something they have only previously done in three top-flight seasons, then their backline may need to produce a collective masterclass.PLAYERS TO WATCHManchester United – Marcus RashfordAfter seeing his attackers underperform against Hull, Carrick might be tempted to introduce Rashford into his starting lineup.Despite only coming on at half-time last week, Rashford's four chances created were the most of any United player, and Chelsea's Morgan Rogers (five) was the only player in the Premier League to tee up more on MD1.Ipswich Town – Julio EncisoEnciso has had a hand in five goals across his last nine Premier League games (two goals, three assists).That is as many direct goal involvements as he managed in his previous 36 appearances in the competition.