DAVID PIERSON, BERRY WANG2026年8月24日上海的石油储罐和设施，摄于3月。中国拥有庞大的石油储备，这使其在能源供应中断时所受的影响较小。 Go Nakamura/ReutersAs Iran’s largest trading partner, China would seemingly have much to lose from President Trump’s threat this week to impose “tremendous economic consequences” on nations doing business with Tehran.特朗普总统称将对与德黑兰有业务往来的国家施加“巨大的经济后果”。作为伊朗最大的贸易伙伴，中国似乎将因特朗普的威胁而蒙受重大损失。For decades, China has defied Western sanctions on Iranian oil by buying up to 90 percent of Tehran’s oil exports. China has also supplied Iran with technology and raw materials to build an arsenal of missiles and drones.几十年来，中国一直无视西方对伊朗石油的制裁，购买了德黑兰高达90%的石油出口量。中国还向伊朗提供了用于制造导弹和无人机武器库的技术和原料。But Beijing has reasons to feel confident it can withstand Mr. Trump’s latest warning — if it is ever fulfilled. And increasingly, Chinese analysts see the war in Iran, which the White House seems unable to end on favorable terms, as a sign of America’s mounting weakness.但北京有理由确信，即使特朗普的最新警告最终付诸实施，中国也能顶住压力。白宫似乎无法以有利条件结束伊朗战争，越来越多的中国分析人士认为，这场战争昭示着美国日益加剧的衰弱。“This threat reveals how desperate the Trump administration has become on the issue of Iran,” said Wu Xinbo, a leading American studies scholar at Fudan University in Shanghai, who advises China’s foreign ministry.上海复旦大学顶尖的美国研究学者、中国外交部顾问吴心伯表示：“这一威胁暴露了特朗普政府在伊朗问题上已变得多么绝望。”“They issue this threat, not because they think it is workable, but because they have no other options,” he said, to get out of this “self-created dilemma.”他说：“他们发出这一威胁，并不是因为他们认为这是可行的，而是因为他们别无选择”——来摆脱这种“自找的困境”。In a social media post on Wednesday, Mr. Trump vowed to inflict an “economic D-Day” on Iran, as well as to punish countries that “provide any type of lifeline” to the country. On Thursday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent implied that it was in China’s best interest to cooperate.在周三的社交媒体帖子中，特朗普誓言要让伊朗经历“经济诺曼底登陆日”，并惩罚那些向伊朗“提供任何形式生命线”的国家。周四，财政部长贝森特暗示，合作才符合中国的最佳利益。周四，财政部长贝森特在白宫外发表讲话。But China might be feeling emboldened as the United States withdraws military assets in the Pacific that were largely meant to project power in Asia. Most recently, that included moving the aircraft carrier George Washington out of the region to support operations in the Middle East.但随着美国撤走太平洋地区主要用于在亚洲投射力量的军事资产，中国可能会感到更有底气。美国最近的动作包括将“乔治·华盛顿号”航空母舰调离该地区，以支持在中东的行动。Lin Jian, a spokesman for China’s foreign ministry, said on Friday that China opposed unilateral sanctions and that pressure would not resolve the crisis in Iran.中国外交部发言人林剑周五表示，中方反对单边制裁，施压解决不了伊朗危机。One major reason that pressure may backfire against the United States is that China is equipped to cut the supply of critical minerals to American companies, including makers of U.S. weapons, which have been depleted because of the war.施压可能适得其反的一个主要原因是，中国有能力切断对美国公司的关键矿物供应，包括因战争而库存耗尽的美国武器制造商。China demonstrated the power of this chokehold when it forced Mr. Trump to pause a blistering trade war last year by cutting off its critical minerals exports. That détente has largely held.去年，中国通过切断关键矿物出口迫使特朗普暂停了一场激烈的贸易战，由此展现了这种卡脖子手段的威力。这种缓和局势目前基本得以维持。The threat of economic consequences now raises questions about the durability of that truce, nearly a month before Mr. Trump is scheduled to host China’s top leader, Xi Jinping, for his first state visit to Washington since 2015.如今，经济后果的威胁让人对这一休战的持久性产生了疑问，而距离特朗普计划接待中国最高领导人习近平仅剩不到一个月的时间——这是自2015年以来习近平首次对华盛顿进行国事访问。Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi last met in Beijing in May, in a summit that China interpreted as highly successful. Mr. Trump did not challenge Mr. Xi on divisive issues like the status of Taiwan, the self-governed island claimed by Beijing, and he was effusive in his praise, calling Mr. Xi a “great leader.”特朗普和习近平上次会面是今年5月在北京，中方将那次峰会解读为非常成功。特朗普没有在台湾地位等存在分歧的问题上挑战习近平（北京声称对自治岛屿台湾拥有主权），并且不吝赞美之词，称习近平是“伟大的领导人”。“I doubt either side wants Iran to derail Xi Jinping’s upcoming visit to the United States. President Trump has clearly attached considerable importance to his relationship with Xi and to the visit itself,” said Wang Zichen, a foreign policy analyst at the Center for China and Globalization, a research institute in Beijing.北京研究机构全球化智库的外交政策分析师王子辰（音）表示：“我怀疑任何一方都不希望伊朗干扰习近平即将进行的美国访问。特朗普总统显然非常重视他与习近平的关系以及这次访问本身。”Mr. Trump’s threats could also just be bluster, Mr. Wang said.王子辰说，特朗普的威胁也可能只是虚张声势。“There is by now a considerable credibility discount attached to individual statements by President Trump on Iran,” Mr. Wang said.“到目前为止，特朗普总统个人关于伊朗的表态在可信度上已经大打折扣，”王子辰说。Regardless of Mr. Trump’s warnings, China’s interests in the Middle East are nuanced. Tehran is Beijing’s closest strategic partner in the region and a fellow authoritarian regime that wants to weaken U.S. global power. At the same time, China has deepened ties with some of Iran’s rivals, such as Saudi Arabia, which could provide greater economic opportunities than Tehran.无论特朗普发出何种警告，中国在中东的利益都是微妙而复杂的。德黑兰是北京在该地区最紧密的战略伙伴，也是同样希望削弱美国全球霸权的威权政权。与此同时，中国深化了与伊朗一些竞争对手的关系，比如能提供比德黑兰更大经济机遇的沙特阿拉伯。It is unclear how the Trump administration would pressure China to cut its business ties with Iran. Mr. Bessent said he would hold a news briefing on Monday to provide more details.目前尚不清楚特朗普政府将如何施压中国切断与伊朗的商业联系。贝森特表示，他将于周一举行新闻发布会，提供更多细节。Washington could try to interrupt the flow of Iranian oil to China, which often goes through small, independent Chinese refineries, known as teapots.华盛顿可能会试图切断伊朗流向中国的石油，这些石油通常途经中国小型独立炼油厂，俗称茶壶炼油厂。Those refineries are less exposed to American sanctions because they are usually disconnected from the global financial system. The United States could try to step up interdiction of the ships that carry Iranian oil to Chinese refineries, or it could increase its scrutiny of banks that help Iran launder the Chinese yuan that it receives from the teapots as payment.这些炼油厂受到美国制裁的影响较小，因为它们通常与全球金融体系脱钩。美国可能会加强对运送伊朗石油至中国炼油厂的船只的拦截力度，或者加强对帮助伊朗洗钱的银行的审查——伊朗从这些茶壶炼油厂收到的人民币款项正是通过这些银行洗钱的。China has also stockpiled months worth of oil and increased its purchases of oil from Russia to account for reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.中国还储备了可供使用数月的石油，并增加了从俄罗斯购买石油的数量，以应对经由霍尔木兹海峡的石油流量减少的情况。Cutting China’s access to discounted Iranian oil could also force Beijing to purchase more oil elsewhere, which would likely raise global oil prices.切断中国获取折扣伊朗石油的渠道也可能迫使北京从其他地方购买更多石油，而这很可能会推高全球油价。“The United States is not a paper tiger,” said Diao Daming, a professor of international relations at Renmin University of China in Beijing. “It can bite and cause bleeding.”北京中国人民大学国际关系教授刁大明说：“美国不是纸老虎。它会咬人，也会让人流血。”However, he added, “it will also harm itself, which does not serve the interests of either country.”不过，他还说：“这也会伤害它自己，这不符合任何一方的利益。”David Pierson报道中国外交政策和中国与世界的经济与文化交互。他从事新闻工作已超过20年。Berry Wang是《纽约时报》记者/研究员，常驻香港。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。