赫海威, HISAKO UENO2026年8月24日眺望日本北海道的札幌市。 Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesFor 158 years, Tokyo has stood as Japan’s glittering capital, a world-famous nexus of food, culture, business and government.158年来，东京一直是流光溢彩的日本国都，是世界闻名的美食、文化、商业与政府中心。But Tokyo might soon get an understudy. Japan’s legislature recently passed a bill to create a secondary capital that would serve as an alternate center for the government’s operations, ensuring continuity in the case of a natural disaster or other emergency.但东京可能很快就会有一个“替补”。日本立法机构最近通过了一项法案，拟设立一个副首都，作为政府运作的备用中心，以确保在自然灾害或其他紧急情况下的连续性。With hundreds of millions of dollars potentially in the offing, and the chance for tax breaks, tourism and urban revival, the plan has set off a frenzy in Japan. Thirteen local governments have already entered the race, including the business hub of Osaka, the southern prefecture of Fukuoka and the northern island of Hokkaido. Even the laid-back, mountainous region of Gunma, home to about 1.9 million people, has thrown its hat into the ring. 这项计划有望带来数亿美元的资金，并带来税收减免、旅游业发展和城市复兴等机会，在日本引发了一阵热潮。已有13个地方政府加入角逐，包括商业中心大阪、南部福冈县和北部的北海道。甚至连人口约190万、环境悠闲的山区群马县也参与其中。Mayors and governors have held flashy news conferences to declare their interest. Osaka has even created a mascot for its bid, a talking “welcoming cat” named Nyaniwa Fukumaru.各地市长和知事纷纷召开华丽的新闻发布会，宣布其参选意向。大阪甚至为其申办创造了一个吉祥物——一个会说话的“招财猫”，名叫浪花福丸。Masashi Kawai, a senior policy officer at the Tokyo Foundation, a think tank, said the competition had the feel of a grand festival: “A ‘don’t-miss-the-Gold-Rush’ mentality has taken hold.”智库东京基金会的高级政策官员河合雅司表示，这场竞争感觉像一场盛大的节日：“一种‘不容错过的淘金热’心态已经形成。”The idea has divided Japanese citizens. Supporters of the plan say that Japan, long prone to earthquakes, typhoons and floods, must be prepared for the possibility that its government offices in Tokyo could become debilitated. Opponents say the idea is a misguided proposal meant to reward allies of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi: One of her closest political partners is the Japan Innovation Party, which has worked for years to establish its home base of Osaka as an alternate capital.这一想法在日本民众中引发了分歧。支持者表示，日本长期以来易受地震、台风和洪水侵袭，必须为东京的政府机关可能瘫痪做好准备。反对者则认为，这是一个不明智的提议，旨在给首相高市早苗的政治盟友带去好处：她最密切的政治合作伙伴之一是日本维新会，后者多年来一直致力于将其大本营大阪建设为副首都。It will be up to Ms. Takaichi to crown the winner. No official timeline has been set, but her cabinet is expected to put together a list of requirements for the secondary capital in the next few months.最终获胜者将由高市早苗来决定。目前尚未设定官方时间表，但预计她的内阁将在未来几个月内制定一份副首都的要求清单。Guarding Against Disaster防范灾害The idea of a second capital has some precedent in Japanese history. During the Edo period, from 1603 to 1868, Japan had two capitals. Edo, which later became Tokyo, was a political and administrative capital where the shogun ruled. Kyoto was the cultural and spiritual capital, home to the emperor.设立第二首都的想法在日本历史上有先例。在江户时代（1603年至1868年），日本有两个首都。江户（后称东京）是政治和行政首都，幕府将军在此统治。京都则是文化和精神首都，是天皇的居所。In recent decades, the threat posed by natural disasters has led some experts and politicians to revive the idea. Japan is situated along the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” a chain of seismologically active faults encircling the Pacific Ocean. Experts have warned about the possibility of a so-called megaquake in Tokyo and other large cities.近几十年来，自然灾害带来的威胁让一些专家和政治人士重新提起了这一想法。日本位于太平洋“火环”地带，这是一条环绕太平洋的地震活跃断层链。专家们已就东京和其他大城市发生“特大地震”的可能性发出警告。上个月日本九州地震后，一栋倒塌的房屋。In 2011, a 9.1-magnitude megaquake and tsunami in northeastern Japan killed more than 19,000 people and triggered a nuclear disaster. The quake was a reminder of the vulnerability of Tokyo, which lies about 230 miles southwest from the epicenter.2011年，日本东北部发生9.1级巨大地震和海啸，造成超过19000人死亡，并引发了一场核灾难。那次地震提醒人们注意东京的脆弱性——东京位于震中西南约230英里处。Designating another capital could also help decentralize Japan’s population and drive economic growth outside the capital. Many people have left rural areas in recent years for jobs and schooling in Tokyo. While the countryside is hollowing out, the population of the Tokyo metropolitan area has grown, rising slightly to 37 million last year.指定另一个首都也有助于分散日本的人口，并在首都以外地区推动经济增长。近年来，许多人为了工作和求学而离开农村地区前往东京。在乡村日渐空心化的同时，东京都市圈的人口却在增长，去年小幅增至3700万。Concerns About Costs对成本的担忧Experts agree about the threat that natural disasters could pose to Tokyo’s government. But some critics say the plan would do little to address those risks.专家们一致认为自然灾害可能对东京政府构成威胁。但一些批评者表示，该计划对应对这些风险作用不大。Nobuo Sasaki, a professor emeritus at Tokyo’s Chuo University and a former Tokyo official, said the legislation failed to account for important factors like the stability of the ground in the prospective cities.中央大学荣休教授、前东京都官员佐佐木信夫表示，该法案未能考虑到一些重要因素，如候选城市的地基稳定性。“It remains entirely unclear what exactly constitutes a ‘secondary capital’ or how it should be developed,” he said.“究竟什么是‘副首都’，或者应该如何发展它，至今完全不清楚，”他说。Opposition lawmakers argue that Osaka, a top contender, is not suitable to serve as an alternate, given its own vulnerability to earthquakes. They have also expressed concern about the costs of building backup structures to house government offices.反对党议员认为，主要候选城市大阪因其自身易受地震影响，不适合作为替补。他们也表示担心建设政府办公楼备用设施的成本。从大阪城俯瞰大阪市。Makiko Kishi, a lawmaker for the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, said the proposal was “half-baked” and “tainted by partisan maneuvering and the pursuit of vested interests.”日本立宪民主党议员岸真纪子表示，该提议“不成熟”，且“受到党派操作和追求既得利益的影响”。Some experts argue that Japan should focus instead on fortifying Tokyo’s own defenses against earthquakes and other threats. They say that designating a backup capital could also exacerbate problems in rural Japan, causing millions to flee the countryside for another megacity.一些专家认为，日本应集中精力加强东京自身抵御地震和其他威胁的能力。他们表示，指定备用首都也可能加剧日本农村的问题，导致数百万人逃离乡村前往另一个超大城市。The Race to Be Second第二首都之争Despite the conflicting views, local leaders across Japan have rushed in recent weeks to explain why their regions should be chosen.尽管观点不一，日本各地的地方领导人在最近几周纷纷竞相解释为何自己的地区应被选中。In the city of Nagoya, Mayor Ichiro Hirosawa skipped a planned dance festival last month to hold a news conference promoting his city. He has said the city plans to play up its manufacturing prowess and to “do everything in our power to capture the country.”在名古屋市，市长广泽一郎上月取消了参加舞蹈节的计划，转而召开新闻发布会宣传他的城市。他表示，名古屋计划发挥其制造业实力，并“尽一切努力赢得全国青睐”。Officials in the northern prefecture of Hokkaido and its capital, Sapporo City, have set up teams to focus on securing second-capital status. They have emphasized their region’s distance from Nankai Trough, a seismically active zone off southern Japan.北海道及其首府札幌市的官员已组建团队，专注于争取副首都地位。他们强调本地区距离南海海槽（日本南部近海的地震活跃带）较远。Mr. Kawai, the policy expert, said it would be hard to replicate Tokyo’s success. Regions should instead focus on coming up with creative ways to promote economic growth, he said, to offset the declining population.政策专家河合表示，复制东京的成功是很困难的。他说，各地区应转而专注于提出促进经济增长的创新方法，以抵消人口下降的影响。“Without that approach,” he said, “the secondary-capital initiative will bring 100 harms and not one good.”“不从这个角度去思考，”他说，“副首都计划将百害而无一利。”相关报道高市早苗凌晨3点开会引发争议2025年11月12日赫海威(Javier C. Hernández)是《纽约时报》东京分社社长，领导时报对日本及周边地区的报道。在过去十年的大部分时间里，他一直在亚洲进行报道，此前曾任驻华记者。Hisako Ueno是常驻东京的记者/研究员，撰写日本政治、商业、劳工、性别及文化相关议题。翻译：经雷点击查看本文英文版。