AUD/USD and rate-sensitive Australian bonds are likely to react most to any signal in the minutes about how close the Board came to hiking in August, given Governor Bullock has already confirmed both options were actively discussed. Hauser's comments last week, explicitly flagging upside inflation risks and warning further hikes remain possible, have already primed the market for a hawkish read, meaning the minutes carry asymmetric risk: a genuinely hawkish tone confirms positioning already built, while anything perceived as dovish could trigger a sharper unwind in AUD longs. Elevated oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption represent a distinct upside inflation risk the Board is watching alongside domestic demand, and any explicit reference to that channel in the minutes would reinforce the case for a live tightening bias rather than a genuine pause. Given Bullock has already described market pricing for near-term cuts as running ahead of the Board's own thinking, the minutes offer the RBA a chance to push back further against that pricing without needing to move rates itself.---The minutes should show just how close the RBA came to hiking in August, and Hauser has already told markets not to rule out the next one.Summary:The RBA Monetary Policy Board held the cash rate steady at 4.35% in August, a unanimous decision and the second consecutive hold after three hikes earlier in the year.The Board judged policy to be somewhat restrictive and the economy to be slowing as anticipated, but sharpened its guidance to say it would hike again if upside inflation risks materialise.Governor Bullock said after the meeting that a further increase was "quite possible," confirming both a hike and a hold were discussed, compared with only a hold at the prior meeting.The minutes, due Tuesday, August 25 at 11.30am Sydney time (01.30 GMT, 9.30pm ET Monday, August 24), may detail the Board's internal debate between hiking and holding and how it is weighing the outlook.Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser said last week that inflation remains too high and monetary policy needs to keep reducing demand, warning rates would need to rise again if inflation does not come down, while saying the RBA is not forecasting a recession, only a slowdown.Hauser and Bullock have both flagged elevated oil prices tied to the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption as an external inflation risk complicating the Board's task alongside domestic demand pressures.The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its August Monetary Policy Board meeting on Tuesday, August 25 at 11.30am Sydney time, equivalent to 01.30 GMT and 9.30pm US Eastern time on Monday, August 24, according to a preview from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. The Board held the cash rate steady at 4.35 percent at that meeting, a unanimous decision and the second consecutive hold following three rate hikes earlier this year.CBA's preview notes the Board judged policy to be somewhat restrictive and the economy to be slowing broadly as anticipated, but sharpened its forward guidance by stating it would raise rates again if upside inflation risks materialise. In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Michele Bullock said a further increase remained quite possible, and confirmed that both a hike and a hold were discussed at the meeting, a shift from the prior meeting where only a hold was on the table. CBA suggests the minutes may shed more light on that internal debate and on how the Board is weighing the outlook given its clear tightening bias.That bias has been reinforced since the meeting by Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who said last week that inflation remains too high and that monetary policy needs to keep reducing demand in the economy to bring it back toward target, warning that rates would need to rise again if inflation fails to ease. Hauser characterised the current trajectory as a slowdown rather than a recession, but flagged upside inflation risks as a genuine ongoing concern, according to investingLive reporting. His comments extended a message delivered consistently through the year, that the RBA's earlier hikes reflected a judgment that demand had outstripped the economy's supply capacity by more than initially expected, and that acting early limits the eventual cost to unemployment.The domestic backdrop remains complicated. Headline inflation is running around 3.8 percent, above the 2 to 3 percent target band, with trimmed mean measures proving sticky rather than falling cleanly. Bullock has separately noted that current market pricing for near-term rate cuts runs ahead of the Board's own thinking, while the Fair Work Commission's larger than expected 4.75 percent award wage increase, due to land in the third quarter, is expected to push wage growth back up after a period of moderation. Layered on top of that is an external inflation risk from elevated oil prices tied to the ongoing Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption, a factor both Hauser and Bullock have cited as complicating the Board's task. Tuesday's minutes are expected to provide the clearest picture yet of how those competing pressures are shaping the Board's next move.Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser spoke last week This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.