USD/CAD — Short Bias USD/CADOANDA:USDCADLeox_MarketsI maintain a bearish USD/CAD narrative in the short/medium term. Broad USD weakness remains the main driver as concerns around U.S. debt, Treasury intervention in long-term yields and expectations for Fed policy continue to pressure the dollar. CAD has recently strengthened to its best levels since May, supported by higher Canadian yields, stronger inflation and expectations for a rebound in Q2 GDP. Friday's Canadian GDP release will be an important confirmation point, while U.S. PCE and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech could create additional USD volatility. COT positioning remains heavily net short CAD at -158.2K, but this improved significantly from -173.4K, showing that traders are reducing CAD shorts. This shift supports CAD strength and therefore a bearish USD/CAD narrative. The main risk remains escalating U.S.–Canada trade tensions and weaker oil prices.