ING says fiscal credibility fears drive gold back to above $4,600 an ounce

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ING's framing ties gold's advance directly to the fiscal and currency debasement narrative building around expanded Treasury buybacks, which links this move to the same bond market strain that has already produced elevated Treasury yields and Trump's own confusing military intervention (Trump says military is "ultimate intervention" for bond market turmoil ) remark last week. Bessent's panic move risks reigniting rate hike bets, hands Fed hawks new ammunitionA radical Bessent, panicking with big Treasury bond buyback move, craters the dollarIf Treasury buybacks continue to expand as a tool to manage yields, the debasement concern ING flags could keep gold well supported even without fresh geopolitical catalysts, since it targets a structural fiscal credibility question rather than a single news event. The move back to levels last seen in May also gives technical traders a reference point, with a further push toward Goldman's $4,900 target plausible if fiscal anxiety compounds with the options-driven amplification dynamic flagged separately last week. Given gold's own volatility in Asian trading recently, this fiscal narrative adds a second distinct driver alongside the Fed rate path, meaning dips are likely to attract buyers on fiscal grounds even if rate-cut expectations soften.---Gold is climbing again, and this time ING says it's the US government's own borrowing that's doing the heavy lifting.Summary:Gold prices rose in Asian trading, supported by concerns over the US fiscal outlook, according to ING strategists.Bullion has rebounded from around $4,000 a troy ounce in mid-July to approximately $4,600, returning to levels last seen in May.ING attributes the rebound to recovering investment demand alongside growing market anxiety about US fiscal credibility.The prospect of the US Treasury expanding its bond-buying program has refocused market attention on government borrowing and fiscal sustainability, the strategists say.ING says the fiscal concerns have also revived worries about currency debasement, reinforcing gold's appeal as a store of value.Gold prices rose in Asian trading, supported by growing concerns over the US fiscal outlook, according to a note from ING strategists. The bank said bullion has rebounded sharply from its July lows, climbing from around $4,000 a troy ounce in mid-July to approximately $4,600, a level that returns gold to where it last traded back in May.ING attributed the rebound to a combination of recovering investment demand and mounting market unease about US government finances. Central to that unease, according to the strategists, is the prospect of the US Treasury expanding its bond-buying program, a step that has refocused investor attention on the scale of government borrowing and questions around long-term fiscal credibility. The strategists said this dynamic has also reignited concerns about currency debasement, a development that in turn strengthens gold's traditional appeal as a store of value at a time when confidence in fiscal management is being questioned.The rebound comes against a backdrop of broader turbulence in US fixed income markets, where Treasury yields have climbed sharply and the Treasury has already moved to expand its purchases of long-dated government debt in an effort to contain borrowing costs. That backdrop lends some context to ING's framing: gold's advance is being read less as a reaction to any single catalyst and more as a structural response to accumulating doubts about US fiscal management, a narrative distinct from, though potentially reinforcing, other drivers already in play in the gold market, including shifting expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path and heavy positioning in gold options.With bullion now back at levels last seen in May, ING's note frames the current move as a return to a familiar price zone rather than a break into new territory, but one arriving with a different underlying justification than earlier rallies this year. Whether the fiscal credibility concerns the strategists describe prove durable, or fade as quickly as they emerged, is likely to determine whether gold's advance from July's lows extends further or consolidates around current levels. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.