黄瑞黎2026年8月24日去年，在布宜诺斯艾利斯一家希音二手店开业时，现场的顾客们。 Sarah Pabst for The New York TimesShein was once one of the most talked-about companies in retail.希音(Shein)曾是零售业最具话题性的公司之一。It could spot what Generation Z wanted and, within days, turn those trends into $10 mesh dresses and $5 crop tops. Its clothes were so cheap and its churn of new styles was so relentless that #Sheinhaul became a phenomenon on TikTok. Shein overtook bigger rivals like Zara and H&M, started planning an initial public offering and, at one point, was valued at nearly $100 billion.它能够敏锐地捕捉到Z世代的需求，并在几天内将这些趋势转化为10美元的网眼连衣裙和五美元的露脐上衣。它的衣服极其便宜，新潮款式的上新速度之快让人目不暇接，以至于#Sheinhaul（Shein购物分享）成了TikTok上的一种现象。Shein超越了Zara和H&M等规模更大的竞争对手，开始筹备首次公开募股，估值一度接近1000亿美元。Now the buzz has faded.如今，这种热度已经褪去。After years of delay, Shein is close to going public — this time at a fraction of its peak valuation. It is searching for new ways to grow after the United States and Europe dismantled tariff exemptions on cheap goods that had helped underpin its low-cost model. Sales have fallen sharply in the United States, its largest market. And the company has offered investors few specifics about where meaningful new growth will come from.经过多年的推迟，希音即将上市——但这一次的估值仅为其巅峰时期的一小部分。在美国和欧洲取消了曾经支撑其低成本模式的廉价商品关税豁免后，该公司正在寻找新的增长途径。在其最大市场美国，销售额已大幅下降。而且，对于未来实质性的新增长点将从何而来，该公司几乎没有向投资者提供任何具体细节。“For a company as hyped as it was for such a long time, the music has seemingly run out,” said Juozas Kaziukenas, an independent e-commerce analyst.“对于一家被炒作了这么久的公司来说，热潮似乎已经消退，”独立电商分析师尤奥扎斯·卡齐乌克纳斯表示。No Chinese fashion brand has been as successful as Shein at going global. And yet the company remains unusually reclusive.在走向全球这方面，没有任何一个中国时尚品牌能像希音这样成功。然而，这家公司却异常低调隐秘。Its founder and chief executive, Sky Xu Yangtian, is so private that until he appeared publicly in February, most of the photographs circulating online purporting to show him were false. Even a senior overseas Shein executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak with the media, said he had never met or interacted with Mr. Xu.其创始人兼首席执行官许仰天极为低调，直到今年2月他公开露面之前，网上流传的绝大多数据称是他本人的照片都是假的。甚至一位因未获授权接受媒体采访而要求匿名的高管表示，他从未见过许仰天，也没有与他有过任何接触。Shein declined requests for an interview. The timing and pricing details of its market debut have not been announced, but the company filed a prospectus with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last month.希音拒绝了采访请求。其上市的时间和定价细节尚未公布，但该公司上个月已向香港证券交易所提交了招股说明书。Shein has taken pains to distance itself from its Chinese origins. In 2019, it established its headquarters in Singapore and de-registered its original Chinese corporate entity a few years later. The aim was, in part, to navigate Chinese rules governing companies seeking offshore listings and clear a path toward an I.P.O. in New York.希音煞费苦心地与自己的中国背景保持距离。2019年，它将总部设立在新加坡，并在几年后注销了其最初的中国企业实体。这一举措的部分目的在于规避中国对寻求海外上市公司的规定，并为在纽约首次公开募股扫清障碍。The strategy failed. In the United States, Shein encountered intense, bipartisan scrutiny from lawmakers over its supply chain and labor practices. After abandoning its New York listing effort in 2024, it turned to London, where it faced similar resistance from nongovernmental organizations and other protesters.这一策略失败了。在美国，希音因其供应链和劳工做法遭遇了两党立法者的密切审查。在2024年放弃纽约上市的努力后，它转向了伦敦，在那里同样遭到了非政府组织和其他抗议者的抵制。去年，在中国广州某服装制造区的工厂车间内，希音的工作人员正在进行包装工作。That left Hong Kong as the last major viable venue. But after years of delay, analysts say Shein may have missed its moment.这使得香港成为最后一个主要的可行上市地点。但分析人士表示，经过多年的耽搁，希音可能已经错失了最佳时机。The turn toward Hong Kong has also put Shein in the awkward position of having to re-embrace the Chinese identity it once tried to play down. In China, the company has faced criticism for “blooming in China but bearing fruit abroad” — a phrase suggesting that Shein built its success in the country while redirecting profits overseas.转向香港也让希音陷入了尴尬的境地，不得不重新拥抱它曾经试图淡化的中国身份。在中国，该公司面临着“中国开花，国外结果”的批评——意思是希音在中国打下了成功的基础，却将利润转移到了海外。Then, in February, the famously elusive Mr. Xu suddenly appeared before officials in Guangdong Province.随后在2月，素以低调著称的许仰天突然现身广东省政府官员面前。“Guangdong is Shein’s root,” he declared, announcing that Shein would invest about $1.4 billion over the next three years to build a supply chain hub there.“广东是希音的根，”他宣称，并宣布希音将在未来三年内投资100亿元，在广东建立一个供应链枢纽。Chinese media initially covered the speech. Then some articles began disappearing from the internet. Lu Minghe, a veteran journalist, posted a notice showing that Shein had demanded that his public WeChat account remove an article about Mr. Xu’s appearance, citing “infringement.”中国媒体最初报道了这次讲话。随后，一些文章开始从互联网上消失。资深记者卢明河（音）发布了一份通知，显示希音以“侵权”为由，要求他的微信公众号删除一篇关于许仰天露面的文章。Even as Shein recalibrates its relationship with China, a more fundamental problem hangs over any potential listing.尽管希音正在调整与中国的关系，一个更根本的问题仍然笼罩着它的任何潜在上市计划。Jianggan Li, founder of Momentum Works, a consultancy that has followed Shein closely, said prospective investors had told him that they sensed little enthusiasm from its founders.密切关注希音的咨询公司墨腾创投创始人李江玕表示，潜在投资者告诉他，他们几乎感觉不到希音创始人的热情。“There hasn’t been any effort to drum up interest,” Mr. Li said. “I don’t feel there’s a strong desire for the management to make the company public, aside from the fact that the investors want to exit.”“他们没有做出任何努力来激发人们的兴趣，”李江玕说。“除了投资者想要退出这一事实之外，我并没有感觉到管理层有强烈的让公司上市的意愿。”Investors are asking how Shein can keep growing.投资者们都在问，希音如何才能保持增长。President Trump’s decision last year to end a policy that had allowed billions of dollars of low-cost imports to enter the United States duty-free dealt a major blow in its single biggest market. In May 2025, Shein began raising prices in the United States. In the first quarter of 2026, U.S. net revenue fell 14.3 percent to $2 billion, the company said.特朗普总统去年决定终止一项允许数十亿美元低成本进口商品免税进入美国的政策，这给希音最大的单一市场带来了沉重打击。2025年5月，希音开始在美国提高价格。该公司表示，在2026年第一季度，其美国净营收下降了14.3%，至20亿美元。Europe could pose an even greater challenge. Last month, European authorities announced a 3-euro flat fee on e-commerce parcels that had previously entered duty-free.欧洲可能带来更大的挑战。上个月，欧洲当局宣布对以前免税入境的电商包裹征收三欧元的统一费用。3月，希音在巴黎BHV百货公司开设的精品店。在遭到批评后，BHV于6月终止了这一合作。Europe accounts for more than a third of Shein’s revenue. In its prospectus, Shein warned that although it was too early to assess the impact of the situation in Europe fully, it “could be generally in line with or exceed the impact observed in the U.S.”欧洲占希音营收的三分之一以上。希音在其招股说明书中警告称，尽管现在全面评估欧洲局势的影响还为时过早，但它“可能与在美国观察到的影响基本一致，甚至超过美国”。Shein is now trying to convince investors that its future goes beyond ultracheap clothes by selling access to the system it built to design, produce, market and deliver products quickly.希音现在正试图向投资者证明，其未来的发展不仅限于超低价服装，还将出售其构建的系统，来实现产品的快速设计、生产、营销和交付。So far, there is little evidence that the supply chain strategy is paying off. Since offering the service as a pilot in 2023, Shein has signed up only about 20 brands. The program generated less than 1 percent of its total net revenue in 2025, according to the company.到目前为止，几乎没有证据表明这一供应链策略正在取得成效。自2023年推出该服务试点以来，希音仅吸引了约20个品牌加入。据该公司称，该项目在2025年产生的净营收不到其总净营收的1%。Shen Meng, a director at Chanson & Co., an investment banking firm in Beijing, said Shein succeeded in part because it was willing to squeeze its own costs and margins — trade-offs that other brands using its platform may be unwilling to accept.北京投资银行香颂资本董事沈萌表示，希音之所以成功，部分原因是它愿意压缩自己的成本和利润空间——而使用其平台的其他品牌可能不愿接受这种妥协。4月，位于中国南方广州某城中村的一家希音缝纫作坊。“It’s hard to see any outstanding advantages in Shein’s transition,” Mr. Shen said.“很难看出希音的转型有任何突出的优势，”沈萌说。Shein is also branching out into furniture, cosmetics, pet products and electronics. Nonapparel goods accounted for more than a third of its revenue in the first quarter.希音还将其业务拓展至家具、化妆品、宠物用品和电子产品。在第一季度，非服饰类商品占其营收的三分之一以上。Other analysts are similarly skeptical that Shein has found a second act.其他分析师同样对希音能否“开启第二春”持怀疑态度。“It’s not clear, other than really cheap, ultrafast fashion, what they’re going to be able to generate,” said Sucharita Kodali, an e-commerce expert at Forrester, a research agency.研究机构Forrester的电商专家苏查里塔·科达利表示：“除了非常便宜的超快时尚之外，目前尚不清楚他们还能创造什么。”Shein’s first act was remarkable.希音的第一阶段发展令人瞩目。It was founded in 2012 by Mr. Xu and three colleagues at a marketing firm that helped Chinese exporters sell products online. In 2015, it shortened its name from Sheinside to Shein.该公司由许仰天及其三位同事于2012年创立，当时他们供职于一家帮助中国出口商在线销售产品的营销公司。2015年，公司名称从Sheinside简化为Shein。During the Covid-19 pandemic, as online shopping exploded, Shein’s popularity surged. The company saturated the internet with advertisements aimed at young consumers, enticing them with extremely low prices and constantly changing designs.在新冠大流行期间，随着网购的爆发式增长，希音的人气也急剧攀升。该公司在互联网上投放了大量针对年轻消费者的广告，以极低的价格和不断变化的款式吸引他们。By 2022, Shein became the world’s biggest online fashion retailer. That year, it was valued at $98.2 billion and backed by a roster of big-name venture capital investors.到了2022年，希音成为全球最大的在线时尚零售商。那一年，其估值达到982亿美元，并得到了一批知名风险投资机构的支持。The secret was a system built to compress the traditional fashion cycle. Shein used algorithms to track emerging trends, then placed initial orders of a few hundred units to test demand. The model allowed it to introduce approximately 4,700 new apparel styles a day. Zara, by comparison, produces 20,000 a year, according to analysts.其秘诀在于建立了一个压缩传统时尚周期的系统。希音利用算法追踪新兴趋势，然后下几百件的初始订单来测试需求。这种模式使其能够每天推出约4700款新服装款式。相比之下，据分析师称，Zara一年生产约两万款服装。Shein paired that technology with an industrial ecosystem concentrated in Guangdong, where spinners, weavers, seamstresses and small factories could rapidly manufacture orders as small as 100 pieces.希音将这项技术与集中在广东的产业生态系统结合起来，那里的纺纱工、织布工、裁缝和小工厂可以迅速生产小到100件的订单。2023年，位于印第安纳州怀特斯敦的一处希音仓库。But Shein has struggled to duplicate its Chinese supply chain model in countries such as Turkey and Vietnam, according to Mr. Li of Momentum Works. At the same time, competitors like Temu arrived with even broader product assortments and even lower prices.但据墨腾创投的李江玕称，希音一直难以在土耳其和越南等国家复制其中国供应链模式。与此同时，Temu这样的竞争对手带着更丰富的商品品类和更低的价格入场了。Mr. Kaziukenas said he had scoured Shein’s prospectus to find the answer to a question that he’d had for years: “What is the future of Shein?” He added: “I don’t think we got that answer.”卡齐乌克纳斯表示，他仔细研读了希音的招股说明书，试图找到自己这些年来一直想知道的答案：“希音的未来是什么？”他还说：“我认为我们没有得到那个答案。”Li You对本文有研究贡献。黄瑞黎(Sui-Lee Wee)是《纽约时报》东南亚分社社长，负责该地区11个国家的报道。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。