Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – August 24, 2026GoldOANDA:XAUUSDWavePoint_FX D1 Timeframe D1 momentum has currently reached the overbought zone and is preparing to reverse. This suggests that we may be approaching a corrective move lasting approximately 5 days. Looking at the wave labels on the chart, I am currently using two different structures: ① ② ③ ④ ⑤ for one possible wave structure. I II III IV V for another possible wave structure. As mentioned in previous analyses, the price compression before the strong bullish breakout makes it difficult to determine the exact position of Wave 1. Therefore, at this stage, we should not force a specific wave count. Instead, we should consider the possible scenarios and wait for price action to confirm them. Scenario 1: The recent rally is Wave 1 of a larger structure If D1 momentum reverses downward and price declines sharply and steeply, especially if it approaches the previous Wave 4 low around 4315, then the correction may extend further, potentially toward the 50% level of the FVG below. In this case, the recent rally could be a completed ① ② ③ ④ ⑤ structure, representing Wave 1 of a larger bullish structure. The following decline would then be Wave 2 of the larger structure. Once Wave 2 is completed, we could expect a larger Wave 3 to develop. The characteristics of this Wave 3 should be a fast and powerful price expansion, taking liquidity above the previous highs while tending to respect liquidity levels below the lows. Scenario 2: Price is forming Wave IV If D1 momentum declines into the oversold zone while price does not fall significantly and instead moves sideways above 4315, developing mainly horizontally, then there is a higher probability that we are currently forming Wave IV of the structure labeled with Roman numerals. Once Wave IV is completed, we could expect another bullish move to complete Wave V. H4 Timeframe The current Wave 5 target has already been reached. Normally, when price reaches the projected Wave 5 target and the wave is truly complete, price can reverse sharply almost immediately. Therefore, what we need to wait for now is a bearish Displacement to confirm that the Wave 5 top has formed. In addition, D1 momentum is already overbought and is beginning to close toward a bearish reversal. Therefore, there is a possibility that a reversal could appear on Monday or Tuesday, confirming the completion of Wave 5. At this stage, we should not try to predict the exact top. A sell setup becomes more meaningful only after a bearish Displacement appears while H4 momentum has not yet reached the oversold zone. H1 Timeframe Price has currently reached the Wave 5 target. At the same time, D1 momentum is beginning to turn lower, but price has not yet produced a clear bearish Displacement to confirm the wave top. Therefore, there is still a possibility that price may form a triangle pattern near the top. We should continue monitoring the price structure and wait for confirmation of the pattern before looking for an entry. Based on the current data, the key level I am watching is 4596. If we see a strong bearish candle with a large body closing below 4596, this can be considered an initial confirmation signal for us to start looking for sell opportunities. If an ending triangle for Wave 5 develops, we may see several characteristics: Price continues to form higher highs and higher lows. The internal waves increasingly overlap. Candle bodies become compressed. The bullish swings fail to create clear FVGs. In that case, we can monitor the higher lows within the structure. If one of these higher lows is broken by a clear bearish move, it could provide a confirmation signal to look for a short entry.