MICHAL MEIDAN2026年8月26日 Arne BellstorfWhen the Iran war began in late February, China looked vulnerable.当伊朗战争于2月下旬爆发时，中国看上去处境不妙。The world’s largest crude oil importer, China has in recent years depended on imports for more than 70 percent of its consumption, with around half coming from the Middle East. The throttling of the Strait of Hormuz, months after the United States had disrupted global oil flows from Venezuela, seemed to present Chinese leaders with one of their greatest strategic fears: a crippling oil shock they could not control.作为全球最大进口国，中国近年来超过70%的原油消耗依赖进口，其中约一半来自中东。在美国此前已扰乱来自委内瑞拉的全球石油流通之后，霍尔木兹海峡的阻塞似乎给中国领导人带来了其最大的战略恐惧之一：一场无法控制的严重石油休克。Instead, President Trump’s war on Iran has been a welcome revelation for China, which absorbed one of the most severe oil-supply disruptions of the modern era, demonstrating that years of preparation had mitigated a huge vulnerability and potential source of U.S. leverage over Beijing in a geopolitical confrontation.然而，特朗普总统对伊朗的战争对中国而言却成了一次可喜的揭示。中国经受住了现代史上最严重的石油供应中断之一，证明多年的准备已改善了一个重大薄弱环节——以及在地缘政治对抗中美国可能对北京施压的潜在筹码。China was self-sufficient in oil until 1993, when the escalating needs of its booming economy turned it into a net importer. Oil imports soared in the years that followed, prompting President Hu Jintao to warn in 2003 that hostile powers could seek to control the Malacca Strait, the sea lane in Southeast Asia through which much of the country’s imported oil travels.中国在1993年之前石油自给自足，此后蓬勃发展的经济需求使其转为净进口国。随后几年石油进口飙升，促使胡锦涛主席在2003年警告敌对势力可能寻求控制马六甲海峡——这条东南亚海上通道是中国相当一部分进口石油的必经之地。Beijing responded with a wide-ranging strategy to reduce that exposure. It diversified supply sources to limit the share of oil coming from the Middle East and began to build up what are now estimated to be the world’s largest crude oil stockpiles, roughly equal to those of the United States and Japan combined. China has pushed aggressively to shift passenger cars from fossil fuels to electric power, making it by far the world’s largest market for electric vehicles today, and it is extending that effort to trucks. Electricity generation relies almost entirely on domestic energy sources such as coal, nuclear, hydro and, increasingly, wind and solar.北京以一项广泛战略应对，以降低该风险。对供应来源进行多元化，限制中东石油所占份额，并开始建立目前估计为全球最大的原油储备，大约相当于美国和日本储备的总和。中国大力推动乘用车从化石燃料转向电力，使其成为迄今为止全球最大的电动汽车市场，并将这一努力延伸至卡车。发电几乎完全依赖国内能源，如煤炭、核能、水能，以及日益增长的风能和太阳能。That long-term strategy has been put through a real-world stress test by the Iran war — and, so far, it has passed.这项长期战略接受了伊朗战争的实际压力测试——且到目前为止是合格的。The Hormuz disruptions drove oil prices up. But unlike during a 2021 Chinese coal shortage, when the government instructed importers to urgently secure energy supplies, it didn’t hit the panic button this time. Inflows of oil to China plunged as importers slashed purchases. The country fell back on its stockpiles while restricting exports of transport fuels to keep more at home. Higher fuel prices also appear to have pushed many Chinese drivers to use public transportation, taxis or ride-hailing services, much of which run on electricity.霍尔木兹航运中断推高了油价。但与2021年中国煤炭短缺时政府指示进口商紧急确保能源供应不同，这次中国并未按下恐慌按钮。中国的石油进口量骤降，进口商大幅削减采购。中国动用储备，同时限制运输燃料出口以将更多能源留在国内。更高的燃料价格似乎也促使许多中国驾驶者转向公共交通、出租车或网约车服务，其中很大部分使用电力。As a result, while some governments in Asia were forced to take painful emergency measures such as rationing fuel, raising prices and reducing public services, China’s economy was not materially disrupted. Its purchasing restraint in global oil markets also eased pressure on prices, sparing the world an even bigger oil shock and, ironically, softening the domestic political fallout for Mr. Trump by limiting the pain at the U.S. pump.结果，当亚洲一些政府被迫采取痛苦的紧急措施（如燃料配给、涨价和减少公共服务）时，中国经济并未受到实质性干扰。其在全球石油市场的采购克制也缓解了价格压力，使世界免于一场更严重的石油冲击，且讽刺的是，通过减轻美国国内加油站的痛苦，也缓解了特朗普在国内政治上的负面后果。China’s ability to weather the Iran war’s oil disruptions came as a surprise to many. It shouldn’t have — this is exactly what the government has spent years preparing for.中国承受伊朗战争石油中断的能力令许多人感到意外。但他们不应该这么觉得——这正是中国政府多年来一直在准备的事情。Chinese leaders see energy as a source of national and geopolitical power on par with industrial, technological and military strength. In 2021 they called for China to become an “energy powerhouse” — less reliant on fossil fuels yet still able to provide abundant and reliable power to the economy. Even before the war began in February, Communist Party-controlled media said achieving that goal was critical for China in “gaining the initiative in great-power competition” — an unmistakable reference to the contest with the United States in power-hungry industries like advanced manufacturing, data centers and artificial intelligence.中国领导人将能源视为与工业、技术和军事实力同等的国家和地缘政治力量来源。2021年，他们呼吁中国成为“能源强国”——在减少化石燃料依赖的同时，仍能为经济提供充足可靠的电力。甚至在2月战争爆发之前，共产党控制的媒体就表示，实现这一目标对于中国“在大国竞争中赢得主动”至关重要——这明确指向了与美国在先进制造、数据中心和人工智能等高耗能产业中的竞争。China’s latest energy plan, adopted this year, reflects that ambition. It calls for developing more renewable energy, as well as nuclear and hydropower, while retaining coal — long the backbone of China’s power system — as a critical backstop. The country is also investing heavily in new transmission lines to move power from resource-rich regions to the cities and factories that need it, in batteries and other storage capabilities, as well as in grid upgrades to keep electricity supplies steady.中国今年通过的最新能源规划反映了这一雄心。它要求发展更多可再生能源以及核能和水电，同时保留煤炭——长期作为中国电力系统的支柱——作为关键后备。中国还大力投资新的输电线路，将电力从资源丰富地区输送到需要的城市和工厂，投资电池和其他储能设施，以及升级电网以保持供电稳定。The United States has great energy advantages of its own. It remains the world’s unrivaled oil and gas power, with abundant domestic supplies, the capacity to process and export them at enormous scale and large strategic reserves. But its electricity system is struggling to keep pace with rapidly rising demand from a new wave of power-gobbling industries.美国自身拥有巨大的能源优势。它仍是全球无可匹敌的石油和天然气大国，拥有丰富的国内供应、大规模加工和出口的能力以及大型战略储备。但其电力系统正艰难应对新一波高耗能行业带来的迅速增长的需求。For decades, oil leverage seemed to rest with countries that controlled supply — OPEC, Russia and other major exporters, as well as U.S. shale producers — and could move prices by tightening or loosening the taps. The Hormuz crisis has shown that China is becoming a new type of energy power: an oil importer so large that it is able to influence global oil prices and withstand external disruptions.几十年来，石油杠杆似乎掌握在控制供应的国家手中——欧佩克、俄罗斯和其他主要出口国，以及美国页岩油生产商——它们可以通过收紧或放松供应来影响价格。霍尔木兹危机表明，中国正在成为一种新型能源大国：一个体量如此庞大的石油进口国，以至于能够影响全球油价并抵御外部冲击。China’s dependence on imported oil remains substantial, but the geopolitics of energy are shifting from control of oil flows to control of electrified industrial systems. China has a clear head start in that transition, one that strengthens its hand in the industrial and strategic competition with the United States.中国对进口石油的依赖仍然很大，但能源地缘政治正从控制石油流通转向控制电气化工业体系。中国在这场转型中拥有明显的先发优势，这增强了其在与美国的工业和战略竞争中的地位。Michal Meidan博士是牛津能源研究所中国能源研究负责人。翻译：纽约时报中文网点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site