Weekly Bias — 24 AugustInvesco QQQ Trust Series IBATS:QQQpakoumalThe week ahead leaves me neutral-to-cautious for Monday/Tuesday, but much more concerned about volatility from Wednesday onward, so I wouldn’t start the week with a blanket risk-off thesis The charts show an incomplete correction sitting directly above important support, while the macro setup creates unusually strong 2-way event risk The key contradiction is still intact — yields are flashing risk-off, while equities, volatility & breadth haven’t confirmed a disorderly de-risking The 10Y is around 4.7%, substantially above its rising 50d average near 4.6% The 30Y reached its highest level since 2007, while semis fell roughly 5% last week A genuine valuation headwind for QQQ VIX is only around ~15, down sharply Friday; correlation is deeply negative at roughly -43%; dispersion has retreated & the percentage of NDX stocks above their 50d MA is still about 53% This doesn’t look like systemic risk-off positioning, so I see fragility, not stress At ~$713, price is sitting just above the rising intermediate MA around $709, after rejecting the $708–$710 area RSI has reset to ~50, stochastic is near 22 & MACD has only just slipped fractionally below its signal Volume Friday was ~33M vs roughly 39M average The decline still hasn’t shown convincing expanding-volume seller follow-through A Monday rally from $713 to $716–$718 would still fit perfectly inside the corrective structure QQQ needs to reclaim approximately $720–$722 & hold it before I’d classify the move as a meaningful bullish MSS Conversely, I wouldn’t short merely because QQQ trades $708–$709 intraday We’ve already seen that liquidity swept & defended I want a close/acceptance below roughly $708 followed by inability to reclaim $710 Would finally give sellers the confirmation they’ve been missing The SPY & IWM charts are somewhat healthier than QQQ SPY remains above its rising intermediate average around $753, while IWM closed around $300, well above its ~$295 intermediate average IWM also outperformed Friday A genuine macro risk-off move caused by yields normally shouldn’t leave small caps conspicuously outperforming indefinitely If IWM starts losing $295 while SPY loses $752–$753 simultaneously with QQQ losing $708, the bearish signal becomes much stronger Monday–Tuesday I expect positioning/compression more than a decisive trend The calendar is comparatively light, although geopolitical/oil developments remain capable of moving yields & risk assets A $710–$720 QQQ range wouldn’t surprise me Wednesday morning This is the first major regime test Core PCE, Q2 GDP second estimate, durable goods, income & spending together at 8:30 AM EST Current expectations include 0.2% MoM core PCE & 1.5% GDP growth The reaction function is particularly important because of the 4.7%+ 10Y A benign PCE print that pulls yields lower would remove the biggest immediate obstacle to QQQ In that situation, $720–$722 could break quickly Hot PCE + another yield breakout would be the dangerous combination If that occurs while QQQ is sitting near $708–$710, I’d expect support to have substantially less chance of surviving Wednesday after the close brings the second major catalyst — NVDA earnings Consensus expectations are extraordinarily high Current previews put revenue around $92B & adjusted EPS around $2.10, with investors focused heavily on next-quarter guidance & gross margins Options are pricing approximately a ±6% NVDA earnings move A normal NVDA beat may not be sufficient The market appears to expect a beat & raise Guidance & margins will probably matter more than simply exceeding the headline EPS/revenue consensus So my NVDA reaction framework Major beat + strong guide + stable/improving margins — semi squeeze → QQQ $720/$728 & potentially $734 Beat + merely inline guide — expect the initial pop vulnerable to fade Beat + margin/forward-guide disappointment — potentially significant AI de-rating Miss/weak guide — QQQ $708 → $700 becomes very realistic Also explains why I wouldn’t aggressively buy QQQ at $720 immediately before Wednesday evening The technical breakout could be completely repriced several hours laterThen Friday gives us another major macro test Warsh at Jackson Hole plus the preliminary payroll benchmark revision The calendar & current week-ahead previews confirm Jackson Hole runs 27-29 August, with the preliminary payroll benchmark revision Friday So there are effectively 3 independent repricing mechanisms Wednesday 8:30 AM EST — inflation/growth → yields Wednesday 4:20 PM EST — NVDA → AI/semi earnings expectations Friday — Warsh + labor revisions → Fed/rate expectations VXN/VIX has collapsed substantially from its July extreme Volatility is no longer commanding the enormous relative premium it did during the earlier tech sell-off Combined with VIX ~15 & correlation deeply negative, suggests the market is currently treating the weakness as sector/index dispersion rather than systemic liquidation Another reason I wouldn’t front-run a crash It’s also why a break of $708 accompanied by VIX >18–20 & correlation moving rapidly toward zero/positive would be especially informative because it would represent a volatility regime change, not merely another QQQ pullback Think of $708 as the trapdoor → macro conditions have weakened the floor, but price hasn’t fallen through it Above $720–$722, especially with 10Y retreating below roughly 4.7%, I’d favor upside toward $728–$730, then $734–$735 Between $710 & $720, I’d treat QQQ as balance/chop & avoid extrapolating intraday moves Below $708 with acceptance, particularly if 10Y simultaneously pushes above its recent high, I’d switch decisively defensive & target $700 first, then $691–$695 If QQQ sweeps $708 again Monday/Tuesday, but immediately recovers $710 while VIX stays contained, I’d interpret that as another failed breakdown rather than confirmation of risk-off The bigger picture is that the HTF uptrend hasn’t broken while the LTF structure is corrective/bearish, momentum has reset, breadth remains adequate & volatility isn’t confirming panic, but rates are an increasingly serious divergence, so Wednesday is where those signals are most likely to reconcile