EURUSD, Fed Chair Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on FridayEURO VS US DOLLARTRADENATION:EURUSDTradeNationThe US dollar remains in focus this week as markets balance easing bond yields against growing risk aversion and uncertainty over Fed policy. Treasury yields have eased slightly, with the 10-year yield falling to 4.71% and the 30-year yield to 5.25%. Normally, lower yields would weigh on the dollar by reducing its interest rate advantage. However, risk sentiment remains negative, with US equity futures extending losses after the S&P 500 fell 1.43% last week. Weakness across Asian markets is reinforcing a defensive tone, which is helping to support demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset. Oil prices remain a key driver. Although Brent crude has pulled back to around $93 per barrel, markets continue to price in the possibility of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. Elevated energy prices could keep inflation pressures alive, limiting the scope for Fed easing and potentially supporting the dollar. The main event for FX markets will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Futures currently imply a 39% probability of a Fed rate hike at the next meeting, leaving the dollar highly sensitive to any policy signals. A more hawkish tone emphasizing inflation risks or higher-for-longer rates would likely strengthen the dollar, while a dovish message could trigger renewed selling pressure. US Dollar Outlook The dollar is currently receiving support from safe-haven flows and lingering inflation concerns linked to energy markets. While the recent decline in Treasury yields is a modest headwind, the broader direction for the greenback will likely depend on whether Warsh signals that further tightening remains on the table. Until then, the US dollar is likely to remain firm against risk-sensitive currencies. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 1.1737 Resistance Level 2: 1.1798 Resistance Level 3: 1.1885 Support Level 1: 1.1590 Support Level 2: 1.1500 Support Level 3: 1.1443 The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. To the extent permitted by law, in no event shall Trade Nation (or any affiliate or employee) have any liability for any loss arising from the use of the information provided. Any person acting on the information does so entirely at their own risk. Any information which could be construed as “investment research” has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Financial Spread Bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73.7% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.