S&P500 declines historically before the MID-TERM ELECTIONS.S&P 500 IndexTVC:SPXTradingShotOn November 03 2026 the U.S. goes for its midterm elections. Right now we are a little over 2 months before this rather critical event for the stock market, so let's see how the S&P500 index (SPX) has performed historically around 3 months before its midterm elections since 2002 and the Dotcom Bubble Crisis. As you can see, we've had 6 midterm elections since 2002. On 4 occasions, the market ended lower (red Rectangles) at the time of the elections and only 2 (green Rectangles) managed to rise. As a result, there are twice as many probabilities for S&P500 to decline and be at a lower price than today, than they are to rise. The key takeaway here is that out of those 6 midterm elections, SPX broke below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) in 4 occasions, marginally broke above it on 1 occasion (2010), and sustainably traded above it the whole 3 months without touching it, only once (2006). Right now the index has been rising strongly after it last touched its 1W MA50 back in April 2026. As a result based on our sample of the past 24 years, it has 5 in 6 probabilities of hitting its 1W MA50 by November. This is why we view targeting 7200 as the highest probability. In addition, on 2 occasions it even broke below its 1W MA100 (green trend-line) and even touched its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) (2018 and 2022), while it almost hit its 1W MA100 in 2014. As a result, there is almost a 50% chance that the 1W MA100 may even get hit, which could drop the price to as low as 6800 - 6700 but of course an even worse mix of catalysts will be needed. --- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** --- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇