SNOW has the cleanest trend heading into earningsSnowflake, Inc.BATS:SNOWGatorResearchGot this one by request, and it's a name I've been watching since I own it in my long-term portfolio but haven't actually dug into. Snowflake is a cloud data/software play: over 95% of their revenue comes from their cloud-based data platform. It's been on fire since earnings in May and is one of the reasons that cloud is now nine weeks leading (more on this later). Since earnings in late May, SNOW has been riding the 21ema (white line) and hasn't closed out a single session below it. That's the mark of a strong, extended trend and it gives something to watch for a change of character too. If the rally is marked by riding the 21ema, then breaking down below it and/or closing a session beneath that is a very clear sign that things have changed. And if or when that happens, the odds rise of a move down to the 50-day (yellow line). On the technicals: SNOW has been consolidating since mid August, as marked by the blue line of lower highs in the chart. I also marked the other times that it's formed a similar pattern in this rally. With that, you can see that it's a repeating pattern of trend-consolidate-breakout-trend. So the thesis is that another breakout there results in a leg higher. On the weekly chart, the stochastics are showing overbought. That's not a sell signal and overbought can persist for weeks or months. It's recently turned down too as price has, which could allow space for re-expansion. Weekly MACD doesn't help much because it just reflects the price momentum, which is very obviously up/bullish. So back to cloud generally. I mentioned that my dashboard has logged it 9 consecutive weeks of leading the benchmark and that's some serious extension. I often see 10 weeks as being a mature theme that begins to taper off and/or reset. And what I'm seeing now is that it's a mature theme that is now decelerating. My dashboard says "Trim/hold, do not add". I don't always agree with it there, but it's very obviously slowing down. The most important thing is that SNOW will report earnings soon, and that will dictate what happens next. I calculate implied volatility using ATM options for next week at around 14%, so SNOW should move. There are a couple of entries I see here. 1) The SNOW trend at 21ema is "right" until proven wrong, so one option could be to buy right around 21ema. I have no opinion on how their earnings will come out and be received. This is a riskier option since a gap down at earnings of 14% would be painful. 2) If SNOW gives a chance to buy the breakout from the blue line, that's another option, but an earnings gap higher takes this away. 3) A hybrid option could be something like getting exposure now and adding later. 4) This is my favorite play here: Let earnings pass. If SNOW breaks out hard and gaps up, great. I will wait for it come back down and tag either the 10-day or 21ema and get in. SNOW is high beta, and high beta into earnings is a risk (just look at DDOG). To me, this is less clear than the recent earnings play I made in SE (linked below).