EUR/USD Reached Resistance, but the Dollar Looks VulnerableEUR/USDOANDA:EURUSDEvelyn_ReedEUR/USD has reached the 1.169–1.171 area after a strong recovery from the July lows. The technical move is constructive. But price has not yet established acceptance above the same higher-time-frame zone that previously attracted sellers. That matters because the macro backdrop has become noticeably less supportive for the dollar. The U.S. Treasury’s decision to expand buybacks of long-dated bonds has helped push longer-term yields lower and raised new questions around the dollar. At the same time, expectations for a September Fed hike have fallen sharply. The overlooked detail is that the Fed itself is not clearly dovish. Several policymakers remain concerned about persistent inflation, and Susan Collins has warned that rates may still need to rise if inflation does not continue moving lower. That creates the central contradiction. The dollar is weakening faster than the Fed’s policy message is becoming easier. What the chart shows The daily structure continues to produce higher lows above ascending support. The 1.150–1.152 area has been reclaimed and now represents the broader support beneath the current move. Above, the 1.169–1.171 zone remains unresolved. Price has already traded into it, but repeated upper wicks and the lack of daily acceptance suggest buyers have not fully absorbed supply. Primary interpretation The constructive EUR/USD scenario remains credible while the rising support structure holds. A controlled pullback toward the trendline or the reclaimed support area would not damage the thesis by itself. Continuation becomes more convincing only if price establishes daily acceptance above 1.171. Alternative interpretation The alternative is another rejection from higher-time-frame supply. That scenario gains weight if price loses the rising trendline and begins returning toward 1.150–1.152. A stronger dollar response to U.S. inflation data would make that technical rejection more meaningful. What would change the current view The constructive interpretation weakens if EUR/USD loses the ascending support structure and fails to recover it. The cautious view weakens after sustained daily acceptance above 1.171. What comes next The immediate catalyst is U.S. PCE inflation, followed by Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. Both events will test whether the market is justified in pricing a softer dollar while the Fed continues warning about inflation. EUR/USD has the weaker dollar behind it, but buyers still have to prove they can live above old supply.