Part 2: Macro and Rates (10 Year Yield and US Dollar)United States 10 Year Government Bonds YieldTVC:US10YROW_PartnersTNX The 10 year yield reached a new local peak, but the momentum indicators completely failed to match that push. The momentum (TTM) bars have been steadily shrinking since May. Yields are grinding higher on fumes, which sets up a likely pullback. US Dollar Index DXY Even though the Dollar Index dropped below 99.00, the underlying momentum is quietly making higher lows. That setup points to a short term bounce back. The Big Picture If the 10 year yield rolls over because the broader economy is cooling off, stocks will not see it as a relief rally. Mid caps are on the point of breaking down because cyclical businesses feel higher costs first. If yields drop while the dollar stages a short squeeze, stock pullbacks will likely struggle to find strong dip buyers right away. TGtg!