SP500/USDT H1: Testing KEY levels before movementSP500 / Tether PERPETUAL FUTURESMEXC:SP500USDT.PTerminator_Crypto_Analyst🎯 TP1: $7,641.28 (+0.26%) │ TP2: $7,630.05 (+0.41%) 🛑 SL: $7,693.76 (-0.43%) │ R/R: 1 : 0.95 ⚠️ Stop is wider than TP2 target (R/R < 1) — the closer target is hit more often, but adjust position size according to the stop. FUNDAMENTAL BACKGROUND The S&P 500 is in consolidation mode after recent all-time highs, supported by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) dovish monetary policy and strong corporate earnings. Expectations of a pause in rate hikes following July's cooling inflation sustain risk appetite, but short-term pressure comes from high bond yields and rising oil prices. The next key driver is the Jackson Hole Symposium (August 27–29), where markets await confirmation of the Fed's moderate stance. TECHNICAL PICTURE Price is testing the $7,660 level, trading below the EMA 50 ($7,665.68) and EMA 20 ($7,660.86), confirming weak bearish momentum. ADX at 29.0 indicates a strong trend favoring sellers, while MACD in negative territory (-3.61/-3.49) supports downward pressure. Key support is VWAP at $7,657.18, resistance lies at $7,665–7,670. PROBABILITY MODEL Current mode — sideways (97% probability) with minimal reversal chances. Model confidence is 86%: low volatility (ATR 14.06) and lack of catalysts limit movement potential. DIRECTION 🔴 SELL — bears have the advantage on a break below VWAP $7,657.18.