Week 35 of 52 | AAOI $100 Is the Line in the SandApplied Optoelectronics, Inc.BATS:AAOIRobert_V12AAOI finally pulled back hard after one of the strongest runs we’ve seen this year. The stock went from roughly $20 at the beginning of the year to above $200 at the peak. At that point, the move was getting stretched, and the $200–$220 area became my exhaustion zone. Now we’re on the other side of that move. AAOI closed around $108 after briefly trading near $102, putting price right on top of what I think is the most important area on the chart right now: $90–$100. This isn’t a level where I want to blindly buy just because the stock is down 50% from its highs. I want to see how price behaves here. The recent selloff also comes as the market digests AAOI’s potential $600M ATM equity offering. That creates a real dilution overhang in the short term, even though the underlying growth story around data-center optics, 800G and eventually 1.6T remains intact. So for me, this is no longer about chasing the AI momentum. It’s about whether AAOI can build a new base. Bull case If buyers continue defending the $90–$100 area, the first thing I want to see is a reclaim of roughly $120–$125. That would be the first sign that the current move is turning from a falling knife into an actual recovery. Above that, $140–$150 becomes much more important. A move back through that area would start repairing the technical structure and could put the previous highs back into the conversation later. But we’re not there yet. Bear case If AAOI loses $100 and especially starts closing below $90, I would expect another leg lower. At that point, the long-term ascending trendline becomes much more relevant, potentially bringing the $70 area into play depending on how quickly price gets there. That would still leave the broader multi-year uptrend alive, but it would mean the current correction has more work to do. What I’m watching $90–$100: key support $120–$125: first reclaim zone $140–$150: structure recovery $200–$220: major resistance / previous exhaustion zone For now, I’m not trying to call the exact bottom. AAOI had a huge run, the stock needed to cool off, and now we finally have a level where the risk/reward starts getting interesting again. Let the chart confirm the next move. Hold $100 and reclaim $120–$125? I get interested. Lose $90? I stay patient. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. This is my personal analysis and is shared for educational purposes only. Always do your own research and manage your own risk.