TIM BALK2026年8月25日民主党人詹姆斯·塔拉里科正试图在得克萨斯州赢得一场参议院竞选，此前该党在该州已连续数十年未能如愿。 Christopher Lee for The New York TimesAs a tumultuous primary season draws to a close, Democrats have opened up more than one path to winning control of the Senate, according to strategists in both parties and independent analysts, reshaping the battle on a map where Republicans still hold significant advantages.随着动荡的初选季接近尾声，两党策略师和独立分析人士表示，民主党已为赢得参议院控制权开辟了多条路径，从而在共和党仍占据显著优势的选情版图上重塑了选战格局。Voters are uneasy about President Trump’s handling of the economy, and his unpopular war with Iran has driven increases in the costs of fuel, food and health services, putting Republicans on the defensive in states they once saw as much safer terrain.选民对特朗普总统处理经济的方式感到不安，而他不受欢迎的对伊战争推高了燃料、食品和医疗服务的成本，使共和党在那些他们曾视为稳操胜券的州陷入守势。The basic contours of the map remain challenging for Democrats. Holding 47 seats in the Senate, they must flip at least four to win a majority. At the same time, they are trying to defend seats in two states Mr. Trump won in 2024. And four of the six most competitive races are in states Mr. Trump won by double digits.选战版图的基本格局对民主党人来说依然充满挑战。他们在参议院拥有47个席位，必须翻盘至少四个席位才能赢得多数席位。与此同时，他们正试图在特朗普2024年赢得的两个州保住席位。而在六场竞争最激烈的竞选中，有四场发生在特朗普以两位数优势获胜的州。Republicans are also hoping that Democratic divisions in two important battlegrounds, Maine and Michigan, could help offset some of the political headwinds.共和党人还希望，在缅因州和密歇根州这两个重要战场州，民主党的内部分歧能够有助于抵消部分政治逆势。Mr. Trump himself has expressed concern about a pattern of Republicans not performing as well in cycles when he is not on the ballot. “Pretend, please, that I’m on the ballot,” he said at a rally in South Carolina on Friday, aiming to motivate his base.特朗普本人曾对共和党在自己未参选的选举周期中表现欠佳这一现象表示担忧。“请假装我也在选票上，”他在周五南卡罗来纳州的一场集会上说道，旨在激励其基本盘。But Mr. Trump’s approval rating is below 40 percent, unnerving Republicans, who worry that voters in the center will break for Democrats. And rank-and-file Democratic voters are plainly energized: They have been turning out in huge numbers for primaries.但特朗普的支持率低于40%，这让共和党人感到不安，他们担心中间派选民会倒向民主党。而普通民主党选民显然士气高涨，在初选中踊跃投票。Now the battle for the Senate, once seen as tilting heavily toward the G.O.P., is increasingly up for grabs.如今，曾经被认为共和党极有可能大胜的参议院争夺战正变得越来越胜负难料。Democrats Make Recent Gains民主党近期取得进展The National Picture全国局势The latest show of Democratic strength came last week in conservative-leaning Alaska. Former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat who had recently fired a top aide and changed campaign managers, led Senator Dan S. Sullivan, the Republican incumbent, by more than five percentage points in the state’s nonpartisan primary, according to incomplete results.上周，在倾向保守派的阿拉斯加州，民主党再次展现了其实力。根据不完整的计票结果，民主党前众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉在该州无党派初选中以超过五个百分点的优势领先现任共和党参议员丹·沙利文。佩尔托拉最近解雇了一名高层助手并更换了竞选经理。“I haven’t seen that kind of energy for a Democrat in Alaska in decades,” said Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada, a former chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm. “Democrats are energized. You see it across the country.”“几十年里，我都没在阿拉斯加见到过民主党人展现出这种干劲，”内华达州参议员、参议院民主党竞选委员会前主席凯瑟琳·科尔特斯·马斯托表示。“民主党人士气高昂。全国各地都能看到这一点。”By Thursday, the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election forecaster, moved races in Texas and Iowa from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” citing polling and the economic environment.截至周四，无党派选举预测机构《库克政治报告》援引民调和经济环境，将得克萨斯州和艾奥瓦州的竞选评级从“倾向共和党”调整为“势均力敌”。民主党人玛丽·佩尔托拉上周在阿拉斯加的一场无党派初选中表现强劲。The shift grew the core Senate battlefield from four states — Alaska, Maine, Michigan and Ohio — to six, widening Democrats’ margin for error.这一转变将参议院的核心战场从四个州（阿拉斯加州、缅因州、密歇根州和俄亥俄州）扩大到六个州，拓宽了民主党的容错空间。“It’s a 50-50 tossup,” said Douglas Heye, a Republican strategist. “Republicans are nervous. They’ve watched Trump’s numbers be a constant limbo contest of ‘How low can they go?’”“这是一场五五开的角逐，”共和党策略师道格拉斯·海伊说。“共和党人很紧张。他们看着特朗普的数据成了一场无休无止的悬念竞赛——‘还能低到什么程度？’”While Republican groups have a vast cash advantage over Democratic ones, individual Democratic Senate candidates are handily out-raising their Republican opponents in most of the key Senate races.尽管共和党团体相较于民主党团体拥有巨大的资金优势，但在大多数关键参议院竞选中，民主党参议员候选人个人的筹款额轻松超过了他们的共和党对手。Alex Latcham, executive director of the top Senate Republican super PAC, the Senate Leadership Fund, said his party still had “advantages in the quality of candidates, in our message and in our ability to raise and spend resources.”参议院顶级共和党超级政治行动委员会参议院领导基金的执行董事亚历克斯·拉查姆表示，共和党仍然在“候选人质量、我们的主张以及筹集和使用资源的能力方面拥有优势”。As of Friday, Republican advertising spending surpassed that of Democrats in all the top six races except for the one in Texas, according to the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Democrats, whose national party is entering the fall in debt, argue that spending will not be decisive.根据广告跟踪公司AdImpact的数据，截至周五，除了得克萨斯州之外，在其余六场主要选战中，共和党的广告支出均超过了民主党人。民主党全国委员会在进入秋季时已背负债务，该党认为支出并非决定性因素。“The truth is that all the money in the world should not change the fact that Trump and the Republicans in Congress have made life much more difficult,” said Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York, chair of Senate Democrats’ campaign arm, adding: “People are fed up. And they’re exhausted. And they can’t afford anything. And they’re going to change who’s in charge.”“事实是，世界上所有的钱都改变不了特朗普和国会共和党人让民众生活变得更加艰难这一事实，”参议院民主党竞选委员会主席、纽约州参议员柯斯滕·吉利布兰德说。她还说：“人们受够了。他们身心俱疲。他们什么都买不起。他们要改变执政者。”Alaska, Iowa and Ohio阿拉斯加州、艾奥瓦州和俄亥俄州Economic Conditions Challenge Republicans经济形势对共和党人构成挑战By May, when the average gas price rose as high as $4.56 a gallon, Mr. Trump had dismissed the economic costs of the war with Iran, saying they were outweighed by national security interests.到5月份，当平均汽油价格升至每加仑4.56美元的高位时，特朗普曾轻描淡写地带过与伊朗开战带来的经济代价，称国家安全利益比这些代价更为重要。“I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation,” he told reporters in mid-May. In a cabinet meeting later that month he declared, “I don’t care about the midterms.”“我不考虑美国人的财务状况，”他在5月中旬对记者说。在那个月晚些时候的一次内阁会议上，他宣称：“我不在乎中期选举。”Gas prices have since dropped somewhat from their spring peaks, but they remain elevated, and the fallout from the fighting has spilled across the economy, driving inflation that has outpaced wage growth. Voters say they feel gloomy about the economy.此后，汽油价格虽从春季高点有所回落，但仍居高不下，战事带来的负面效应已蔓延至整个经济领域，推高了超过工资增长速度的通胀率。选民表示对经济前景感到悲观。Some states at the center of the Senate battle have been hit hard.一些处于参议院选战核心的州受到了重创。In Alaska, the cost of a gallon of gas on Sunday was $4.82, roughly 70 cents above the national average, according to the AAA motor club.根据美国汽车协会的数据，周日，阿拉斯加州一加仑汽油的成本为4.82美元，比全国平均水平高出约70美分。民主党人乔什·图雷克正在艾奥瓦州竞选参议员，该州被其所在政党视为一个日益明显的夺取席位的机会。Josh Turek, a centrist Democrat, is trying to flip a Senate seat in Iowa, which has a farming-heavy economy that has struggled under Mr. Trump’s tariff policies in his second term. Those troubles have been exacerbated by fertilizer prices that have soared since the war began.温和派民主党人乔什·图雷克正试图在艾奥瓦州夺取一个参议院席位，该州经济以农业为主，在特朗普第二任期内的关税政策下举步维艰。自战争爆发以来，暴涨的化肥价格更是加剧了这一困境。The economic pressures have been enough to give Democrats hope in a state where Republicans feel their nominee, Representative Ashley Hinson, a skilled fund-raiser, is a particularly strong candidate.在该州，尽管共和党人认为其提名人——擅长筹款的众议员阿什利·欣森——是一位特别有力的候选人，但经济压力已足以让民主党人看到希望。The same economic forces are at play in Ohio, another agriculture-heavy state. There, Sherrod Brown, a former senator and a Democrat, is trying to stage a comeback and has out-raised Senator Jon Husted, the Republican incumbent, by an overwhelming margin.同样的经济因素也在另一个农业重镇俄亥俄州发挥作用。在那里，民主党前参议员肖罗德·布朗正试图重返政坛，其筹款额以压倒性优势超过了现任共和党参议员强·胡斯特德。Dale Butland, a Democratic strategist in Ohio, said the signs of deep voter discontent were plainly visible. “It’s bad here,” Mr. Butland said of economic conditions in Ohio. But politically, he added, “it’s all breaking now in our favor.”俄亥俄州的民主党策略师戴尔·布特兰表示，选民深感不满的迹象清晰可见。“这里情况很糟糕，”布特兰先生在谈到俄亥俄州的经济状况时说。但他还说，从政治上看，“现在一切都在朝有利于我们的方向发展。”Maine, Michigan and Texas缅因州、密歇根州和得克萨斯州Candidate Concerns for Both Parties两党候选人面临的担忧In other areas of the country, Republicans see more encouraging signs.在全国其他地区，共和党人看到了更多令人鼓舞的迹象。In Maine and Michigan, Republicans say that primary season handed them relatively weak Senate opponents who they believe could lose in more Democratic-leaning terrain. In Maine, the candidate the party initially nominated, Graham Platner, was accused of rape a month after the primary.在缅因州和密歇根州，共和党人表示，初选季给他们带来了相对较弱的参议院对手，他们认为这些对手可能会在更倾向于民主党的地区败北。在缅因州，民主党最初提名的候选人格雷厄姆·普拉特纳在初选一个月后被指控强奸。Mr. Platner, who denied the allegation, exited the race, requiring Democrats in Maine to scramble to find a last-minute replacement. They settled on Troy Jackson, who finished third in Maine’s primary for governor in June.普拉特纳否认这一指控，并退出了竞选，使得缅因州的民主党人不得不仓促寻找临时代替人选。他们最终敲定了特洛伊·杰克逊，他在6月缅因州州长初选中排名第三。Democrats have appeared to quickly coalesce behind Mr. Jackson, and some polls show him leading Senator Susan Collins, the Republican incumbent. But many in the party remain anxious about his electoral track record. And they are concerned that some Democrats captivated by Mr. Platner’s campaign may not turn out for a candidate who did not go through the normal primary process.民主党人似乎迅速团结在杰克逊身后，一些民调显示，他领先于现任共和党参议员苏珊·柯林斯。但党内许多人仍对其过往的选举记录感到焦虑。他们还担心，一些被普拉特纳竞选活动吸引的民主党人可能不会为一位没有经过正常初选程序的候选人投票。In Michigan, where Mr. Trump won narrowly in 2024, Democrats are rushing to heal the wounds from a bruising primary animated by personal attacks and fierce disagreements over Israel. Some Jewish Democrats in Michigan have declined to immediately back the nominee, Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, who spoke out forcefully against Israel during the primary.在特朗普2024年以微弱优势获胜的密歇根州，民主党人正急于弥合初选留下的创伤。那场初选因人身攻击以及围绕以色列问题的激烈分歧而变得异常激烈。密歇根州的一些犹太裔民主党人拒绝立即支持被提名人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德博士，他在初选期间曾强烈发声反对以色列。The Republican nominee, Mike Rogers, who is trying to flip a Democratic-held seat, has already begun to issue appeals to disaffected Democrats. Dr. El-Sayed, a left-wing insurgent, is trying to defy a trend for activist progressives, who have tended to perform worse electorally than the rest of their party.共和党候选人迈克·罗杰斯正试图夺取一个由民主党掌控的席位，他已经开始向不满的民主党人争取支持。作为左翼新锐的埃尔-赛义德正试图颠覆激进进步派在选举中的表现往往逊于同党其他成员的趋势。在经历了一场引发党内分裂的初选后，密歇根州的民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德博士正试图团结本党。In Texas, on the other hand, Democrats believe Republicans offered them an opening by nominating Ken Paxton, the state’s scandal-plagued attorney general.另一方面，在得克萨斯州，民主党人认为共和党人提名了该州丑闻缠身的总检察长肯·帕克斯顿，从而给他们留出了机会。Mr. Paxton has been indicted on securities fraud charges (he reached a deal with prosecutors to avoid a criminal trial), has escaped an impeachment trial, has been accused of adultery by his estranged wife and was even caught on video years ago pilfering a prize pen.帕克斯顿曾因证券欺诈指控被起诉（他与检方达成协议以避免刑事审判），他在弹劾案审判中脱身，分居的妻子指控他通奸，他甚至在多年前曾被视频拍到顺手牵羊拿走一支名贵钢笔。Democrats have nominated James Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian who has made his Christian faith a centerpiece of his campaign. The popular podcaster Joe Rogan once told him to run for president.民主党提名了詹姆斯·塔拉里科，他是一位长老会神学生，将自己的基督教信仰作为竞选的核心。知名播客主持人乔·罗根曾建议他去竞选总统。The contrast between the candidates has fed Democratic hopes and Republican fears that Texas might slip out of G.O.P. hands for the first time in three decades.候选人之间的鲜明对比燃起了民主党的希望，也让共和党人担忧得克萨斯州可能会在三十年来首次脱离共和党掌控。Georgia and North carolina佐治亚州和北卡罗来纳州Democratic Strength in the South民主党在南方的优势Nowhere is the Senate picture brighter for Democrats than in the South, where two popular and well-known Democrats have raced out to leads in states Mr. Trump carried two years ago.对民主党人而言，参议院选情在南方最为乐观。特朗普两年前曾赢得这些州，但如今两位广受欢迎且声名显赫的民主党人已迅速取得领先优势。民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫是现任参议员中年龄最小的，他拥有巨额竞选资金，并在民调中一直领先于其共和党对手、众议员迈克·柯林斯。In Georgia, Senator Jon Ossoff, a Democrat and the youngest sitting senator, has a huge war chest and consistently leads his Republican rival, Representative Mike Collins, in the polls. His advantage, which Georgia Republicans attribute in part to his focus on constituent services, has led some Republicans to write off the race, and some Democrats to encourage him to run for president in 2028.在佐治亚州，现任最年轻参议员、民主党人乔恩·奥索夫拥有巨额竞选资金，并且在民调中持续领先其共和党对手、众议员迈克·柯林斯。佐治亚州的共和党人将他的优势部分归因于他专注于选民服务，这导致一些共和党人放弃了该州竞选，而一些民主党人鼓励奥索夫在2028年竞选总统。In neighboring North Carolina, the Democratic nominee, former Gov. Roy Cooper, is trying to flip a seat and is running as a tough-on-crime moderate. He has never lost an election. Mr. Cooper consistently leads his Republican opponent, Michael Whatley, in the polls, with some showing him ahead by double digits.在邻近的北卡罗来纳州，民主党提名人、前州长罗伊·库珀正试图从共和党手中夺取一个席位，他正以对犯罪态度强硬的中间派身份参选。他从未输过任何一场选举。库珀在民调中持续领先其共和党对手迈克尔·沃特利，部分民调显示他的领先达到两位数。Matt Zdun对本文有报道贡献。翻译：晋其角点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site