$ITUBItau Unibanco Holding S.A. Sponsored ADR PfdBATS:ITUBDillyDallyGallyScenarioProbFV / shvs SpotCore Thesis & Valuation Framework Bear25%$5.40−27.8% Macro slowdown in Brazil; NPLs spike $>3.8%$; ROE compresses to 16.0%; P/BV derates to 1.15×; DPS $0.35 Base55%$9.85+31.7% Loan book +8–10% with prime vintage quality; NPLs $\le 2.8%$; ROE sustains 21.5–22.5%; 1.65× P/BV (8.5× P/E) Bull20%$13.20+76.5% Brazil sovereign credit upgrade; loan book accelerates +14%; digital fees expand ROE to 24.5%; 2.10× P/BV Prob-Weighted100%$9.41+25.8% P/FV Base: 0.76× · P/FV Weighted: 0.79× U/D: 1.29× (1y) / 3.42× (5y) Discretionary comments: a great diversifier into EM.