BTC: The Rally Was Expected… The Violence Was Not

Wait 5 sec.

BTC: The Rally Was Expected… The Violence Was NotBitcoin / U.S. dollarBITSTAMP:BTCUSDTheOnePctBTC has started a very aggressive rally. The rally itself was expected, but the violence of this move was not. This is a clear change in price behavior, and from a Wave Theory perspective, that change is important. For now, the **most likely scenario** is for BTC to pull back toward the "key support / retest zone around 72–74K", then attempt another move higher toward the "major resistance area around 83–85K". Ideally, this pullback would develop slowly rather than as another sharp move. If that happens, the "Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line)" and "Kijun-sen (Base Line)" may gradually rise toward the support zone and add another layer of support around the same area. If BTC later reaches the major resistance zone and manages to break it with a confirmed daily close above it, then the rally may continue higher. However, I do not consider that the most likely scenario at this stage, and it is still too early to tell. So for now, the most likely path is: Pullback into 72–74K → support/retest → another rally toward 83–85K. This short-term rally does not change my broader directional view on BTC. The higher-timeframe outlook remains bearish, and the main HTF scenario is still unchanged. This change in price behavior is also very important from a Wave Theory perspective, and I will discuss that separately in another idea.