PETER BAKER2026年8月26日世界各国领导人和美国国内机构都越来越不愿意屈从于特朗普总统的意志。 Kenny Holston/The New York TimesThis is a summer movie that’s been seen before: President Trump makes demands. When the other side does not give him what he wants, he escalates with bombastic threats of crippling punishment. The other side surrenders.这是一部似曾相识的暑期档电影：特朗普总统提出要求。当对方不给他想要的东西时，他就升级威胁，气势汹汹地扬言要施加足以让对方遭受重创的惩罚。于是，对方屈服了。Except that Mark Carney, the prime minister of Canada, evidently has not read the script. His refusal to buckle in the face of Mr. Trump’s trade ultimatum even at the cost of retaliatory tariffs has flipped the narrative of the president’s second term. Instead of giving in, Mr. Carney is testing whether defiance is a viable strategy against Mr. Trump.但加拿大总理马克·卡尼显然没有遵循这个剧本。面对特朗普的贸易最后通牒，卡尼仍拒绝屈服，即使这意味着加拿大将面临报复性关税。这翻转了特朗普总统第二任期以来的叙事走向。卡尼没有让步，而是在测试反抗特朗普是否是一种可行策略。The age of capitulation that defined Mr. Trump’s return to office may be starting to fade. World leaders and domestic institutions are, in some cases at least, showing less willingness to submit to Mr. Trump’s will. European leaders have refused to join his war with Iran. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel flatly rejected his Gaza plan. Gulf Arab states forced him to abandon plans to charge a shipping toll in the Strait of Hormuz.那个定义了特朗普重返白宫以来政治风格的“屈服时代”或许正在开始消退。至少在某些情况下，世界各国领导人以及美国国内的机构显示出越来越不愿意服从特朗普意志的迹象。欧洲领导人拒绝加入他对伊朗发动的战争。以色列总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡直截了当地否决了他的加沙计划。海湾阿拉伯国家则迫使他放弃了在霍尔木兹海峡收取航运通行费的计划。Universities and law firms are rebuffing his directives rather than signing on the bottom line. Bond markets are rebelling against his fiscal policies. Even the ABC network, whose $16 million payment to settle a Trump lawsuit was seen as an early example of yielding to the president, has discovered that it did not buy peace and is now suing his administration for threatening its broadcast licenses.大学和律师事务所不再乖乖签字服从，也开始回绝他的指令。债券市场正在反抗他的财政政策。就连美国广播公司——当初以1600万美元与特朗普诉讼达成和解的做法曾被视为向总统屈服的早期案例——也发现，这笔钱并没有换来太平。在政府威胁吊销它的广播执照后，该公司正在提起诉讼。None of which means that Mr. Trump should be underestimated. Although his poll numbers are at or near historic lows, he remains the most dominant figure on the planet, able to reset the terms of the global conversation on a whim with a social media post and unafraid of wielding power in ways that his predecessors did not.当然，这一切都不意味着应该低估特朗普。尽管他的民调支持率处于或接近历史低点，但他依然是这个星球上最有影响力的人物。他只需在社交媒体上发一条帖子，就能随心所欲地重新设定全球舆论的走向，而且毫不畏惧以不同于前任总统的方式运用权力。加拿大总理卡尼说，他早就警告过：“美国正试图打垮我们，这样他们就能拥有我们。我承诺，这绝不会、永远不会发生。”He may yet bring Canada and Israel to heel through force of personality, tariffs or other means. The Supreme Court has given him one free pass after another to use his executive authority as he sees fit, whether it be taking control of independent agencies, building his cherished ballroom or trying to crack down on mail-in voting.他仍有可能凭借个人影响力、关税或其他手段迫使加拿大和以色列服从。最高法院一次又一次地给他开绿灯，允许他随心所欲地行使行政权力——无论是控制独立机构、修建他心心念念的宴会厅，还是试图打击邮寄投票。And every time someone predicts that Republicans in Congress will finally begin exhibiting some independence, they prove the prognosticators wrong. While they have resisted his pressure in some instances lately, Senate confirmation of Todd Blanche as attorney general made clear that he still dominates his party’s congressional wing.而且，每当有人预测国会共和党人终于会开始展现出一些独立性时，他们总能证明这些预测者错了。尽管共和党人最近在某些情况下确实抵制了特朗普施加的压力，但参议院批准托德·布兰奇出任司法部长一事清楚表明，共和党在国会依旧是他说了算。But even among Republicans, there are some worrisome signs for the president. Although he has successfully punished several prominent Republican lawmakers he deemed disloyal by rallying his MAGA base to defeat them in party primaries this year, G.O.P. voters have rejected Mr. Trump’s endorsed candidates in 10 nominating contests, including six in August alone. Polls show his support among Republicans slipping.不过，共和党内部也出现了一些令总统感到不安的迹象。虽然今年特朗普成功动员“让美国再次伟大”阵营的基本盘，在党内初选中击败了几名他认为不忠诚的知名共和党议员，以此惩罚他们，但共和党选民已经在10场提名竞选中拒绝了特朗普支持的候选人，其中六场都是在8月举行的。民调显示，他在共和党选民中的支持率正在下滑。“I think that recent weeks have been somewhat of an inflection point,” said Norm Eisen, a former Obama White House lawyer and founder of a group called the Democracy Defenders Fund, who has been waging multiple court fights against Mr. Trump. “At home and abroad, pro-democracy forces and everybody else are standing up to him with much more widespread vigor.”“我认为最近几周可以说是一个转折点，”曾任奥巴马政府白宫律师、后来创办“民主捍卫者基金”的诺姆·艾森说。他一直在多起针对特朗普的诉讼中与特朗普政府交锋。“无论是在国内还是国外，支持民主的力量以及其他所有人都在以更广泛的声势站出来反抗他。”Among others, Mr. Eisen has been involved in legal battles over the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, birthright citizenship, the Federal Reserve and the aborted prosecution of a former Olympian charged with vandalizing the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool. To the extent that there has been a shift, Mr. Eisen said, it owes in part to overreaching by Mr. Trump. “Trump has been his own worst enemy,” he said.艾森参与的诉讼涉及肯尼迪表演艺术中心、出生公民权、美联储，以及一名被控破坏林肯纪念堂倒影池的前奥运选手的起诉案（该案最终撤诉）。艾森说，如果说确实发生了某种转变，部分原因在于特朗普把事情做过了头。“特朗普是他自己最大的敌人，”他说。Mr. Trump and his advisers reject that assessment, of course, and point to his continuing ability to shape events. In a series of social media posts in recent days, the president has taken credit for falling crime rates and insisted that he is winning the war with Iran. He has disputed polls showing his unpopularity and rejected stories about recent primary losses.当然，特朗普及其顾问们不接受这种说法，并指出他仍然能够左右事态的发展。最近几天，总统一连发布多条社交媒体帖子，把犯罪率下降归功于自己，并坚称自己正在赢得与伊朗的战争。他质疑显示自己不受欢迎的民调，也否认有关共和党最近在初选中失利的报道。“The actual Polls are tremendous, and the Spirit in our Country has never been higher,” he wrote. “We’re winning against EVERYONE, including Iran, whose Country is in Economic and Military Death Spiral.”“实际的民调数据非常好，我们国家的士气从未如此高涨，”他写道。“我们正在战胜所有人，包括伊朗，他们的国家正陷入经济和军事的死亡漩涡中。”He said that his “endorsements are stronger than ever” and asserted that the Republican candidates who were defeated despite his support were never going to prevail. “The few that lost were done out of loyalty,” he wrote. “It was almost impossible for them to win but, I felt obligated to go with them because they were, in my opinion, good people!”他说，自己的“背书比以往任何时候都更有分量”，并坚称，那些尽管得到他支持却最终落败的共和党候选人本来就不可能获胜。他写道：“少数落败的几个是我出于义气才选择支持他们的。对他们来说，获胜几乎是不可能的，但在我看来，他们都是好人，所以我觉得自己有义务支持他们！”Mr. Trump did not have to explain away losses when he first returned to the White House last year. In his early months, it seemed that he was winning across the board. Even without a strong mandate — he won a second term with just 49.9 percent of the popular vote — he managed to impose his will across society.去年特朗普刚刚重返白宫时，不需要为失利找借口。在执政初期的那几个月里，他似乎在各个方面都取得了胜利。即使没有强有力的民意授权（他仅以49.9%的普选票赢得第二任期），他仍然成功地将自己的意志强加于整个社会。今年6月，肯尼迪中心的工作人员拉起了一块巨大的白色防水布，遵照法院判决，他们正逐步移除建筑物外墙上特朗普的名字。He dictated to private businesses how they should make decisions and universities how they should teach. He made diversity programs so radioactive that employers around the country dropped them. He gutted federal agencies without asking Congress, took over the Kennedy Center and used the power of government to go after his enemies. And in the process, he succeeded in pressuring others to follow his desires. Law firms, universities, media firms and tech billionaires bent over backward to show deference as they changed policies to suit him or agreed to multimillion-dollar deals that he demanded.他指挥私营企业如何做决策，指挥大学如何教学。他让多元化项目变成了烫手山芋，以至于全国各地的雇主纷纷放弃。他在未经国会同意的情况下大幅裁撤联邦机构，接管了肯尼迪表演艺术中心，并利用政府权力打击政敌。在这个过程中，他成功施压他人服从他的意愿。律所、大学、媒体公司和科技亿万富翁们纷纷竭力表现出恭顺的姿态，要么调整政策以迎合他，要么同意他要求的数百万美元交易。Jacob Weisberg, who chronicled the trend of submission in a new book coming out next month called “Profiles in Cowardice,” said that the incentives have begun to reverse and that giving in to Mr. Trump can now generate a costly backlash. “The price has risen on the other side for capitulation,” he said, citing as an example the wave of criticism when Yale University began negotiating with the Trump administration.雅各布·韦斯伯格在他将于下月出版的新书《懦夫群像》(Profiles in Cowardice)中记录了这种屈从的趋势。。他说，如今这种激励机制已经开始逆转：向特朗普屈服现在可能引发代价高昂的反噬。“屈服的代价已经越来越大，”他说。他举例说，耶鲁大学开始与特朗普政府谈判后，批评如潮水般涌来。Still, he cautioned against overstating how much has changed yet. “There’s some signs, but there have been signs before and people have gotten ahead of themselves,” Mr. Weisberg said. “I believe it will start to turn around at some point, and I think it’s tied to Trump’s popularity. I’ve always thought that when he gets down below 30s, you’ll start to see different behavior. And there are some indications that’s happening.”不过，他也提醒人们，不要夸大目前已经发生的变化。“确实出现了一些迹象，但过去也出现过这样的迹象，人们也曾过早地下结论，”韦斯伯格说。“我相信它会在某个时候开始逆转，我认为这与特朗普的支持率有关。我一直认为，当他的支持率跌破30%左右时，你会开始看到不同的行为。而现在已经有一些迹象表明，这种情况正在发生。”There are indications that is happening overseas as well, at least in Europe and, to a lesser extent, the Middle East. When Mr. Trump became president again last year, NATO allies bowed to his pressure and agreed to increase military spending. But now they are more resistant to his demands across the board, from Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez of Spain on the left to Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni of Italy on the right.有迹象表明这种情况也在海外发生，至少在欧洲是如此，在中东地区程度稍轻。去年特朗普再次成为总统后，北约盟友迫于压力同意增加军费开支。但现在，从西班牙的左翼首相佩德罗·桑切斯到意大利的右翼总理焦尔吉娅·梅洛尼，他们在各个方面都更加抗拒他的各种要求。“It’s good politics for a lot of these European leaders to stand up to him,” said Matthew Kroenig, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security and a former national security official under three presidents of both parties, including Mr. Trump. “We see that most clearly in Spain, but also in other places in Europe.”“对很多欧洲领导人来说，站出来对抗特朗普是好的政治策略，”马修·克罗尼格说，他是大西洋理事会斯考克罗夫特战略与安全中心的高级研究员，他曾在三位不同党派的美国总统手下担任国家安全官员，其中包括特朗普政府。“在西班牙，这一点表现得最明显，但欧洲其他地方也一样。”That seemed to change early in the year when Mr. Trump pushed to take over Greenland, which is part of Denmark, a NATO ally. Mr. Trump even held out the possibility of using military power to seize the expansive island, raising the prospect of NATO at war with itself. Rather than trying to placate him, as they had in the past, European leaders spoke out forcefully against Mr. Trump and some even sent a small number of troops to Greenland for military exercises to make the point.今年早些时候，当特朗普推动接管格陵兰岛后，情况似乎发生了变化。格陵兰属于北约盟国丹麦。特朗普甚至表示可能动用军事力量夺取这个幅员辽阔的岛屿，使北约内部成员之间爆发战争的可能性浮现出来。欧洲领导人没有像过去那样试图安抚他，而是强烈发声反对，有些国家甚至向格陵兰派遣了小规模部队进行军事演习，以此表明立场。“Greenland was a turning point, in part because it was an attack on the sovereignty of Europe itself and Europeans began to understand at that point there was simply no end to Trump’s rapaciousness and to his demands,” said Jeremy Shapiro, a former State Department official now at the European Council on Foreign Relations.“格陵兰是一个转折点，部分原因在于，这实际上是对欧洲自身主权的攻击。欧洲人从那时开始意识到，特朗普的贪婪和要求根本没有尽头，”曾任美国国务院官员、现任欧洲对外关系委员会成员的杰里米·夏皮罗说。Mr. Kroenig said he has heard the same from European leaders. “That’s one they come back to over and over again,” he said. “It’s one thing to say we need to spend more on defense, it’s one thing to have a trade war. But a NATO ally threatening military force against another NATO ally, that’s crossing a line.”克罗尼格说，他从欧洲领导人那里听到的也是同样的看法。“他们一次又一次地提到这一点，”他说。“要求我们增加国防开支是一回事，打一场贸易战也是一回事。但一个北约盟国威胁要对另一个北约盟国动用武力，这就越界了。”For all that, he noted, European leaders are not looking for a fight with Mr. Trump either, and they have stuck with their commitment to increase military spending. “It does seem like they’re going all in,” Mr. Kroenig said. And he noted that Chancellor Friedrich Merz of Germany, while criticizing the Iran war, is allowing American forces to use bases in the country.不过，他指出，欧洲领导人同样不想与特朗普发生正面冲突，而且他们依然坚持增加军费开支的承诺。“看起来，他们确实在全力投入，”克罗尼格说。他还指出，德国总理弗里德里希·默茨虽然批评特朗普对伊朗发动的战争，却仍允许美军使用德国境内的军事基地。The clash with Canada brings a lot of that history to the fore. Both sides have continued to escalate in recent days. In a speech announcing that he had broken off talks last week, Mr. Carney said he had long warned that “America is trying to break us so they can own us, and I promised that that will never ever happen.”如今与加拿大的冲突把历史恩怨重新带到了聚光灯下。最近几天，双方都在不断升级对抗。卡尼上周宣布中止谈判时发表讲话说，他早就警告过：“美国正试图打垮我们，这样他们就能拥有我们。我承诺，这绝不会、永远不会发生。”Mr. Trump on Tuesday denounced Mr. Carney as a “weak and ineffective prime minister” and threatened to change the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America since “we don’t expect to be doing much business with Ontario any longer.”特朗普周二抨击卡尼是“软弱无能的总理”，并威胁要将安大略湖改名为“美国湖”，因为“我们预计今后不会再与安大略省有多少生意往来了”。Kush Desai, a White House spokesman, said that Mr. Trump had offered Canada an attractive deal. “With so much of Canada’s economy reliant on exporting to the United States — which has an over 12-times larger economy and seven-times larger population — Canada’s position is less about defiance and more about short-term foolishness,” he said in an email.白宫发言人库什·德赛表示，特朗普曾向加拿大提供了一份有吸引力的协议。“鉴于加拿大经济有很大一部分依赖向美国出口——美国经济规模是加拿大的12倍以上，人口是加拿大的七倍——加拿大如今的立场与其说是反抗，不如说是短视的愚蠢行为，”他在一封电子邮件中说。Leaders across the world are watching. Mr. Shapiro said they “mostly now believe that backing down in the face of Trumpian aggression or insults only encourages more demands.” He added: “I think Carney is setting the template for how they will respond to future Trumpian tariff threats.”全世界的领导人都在关注这一局势。夏皮罗说，如今他们“大多已经相信，面对特朗普式的攻击或侮辱而退缩，只会鼓励他提出更多要求”。他补充说：“我认为，卡尼正在为他们今后如何回应特朗普式的关税威胁树立一个范本。”Peter Baker是《纽约时报》首席白宫记者。特朗普是他报道的第六任美国总统，有时他也撰写将总统和美国政府置于更宏观的背景和历史框架下的分析性文章。翻译：杜然点击查看本文英文版。获取更多RSS：https://feedx.net https://feedx.site