Bitcoin - A simple long term viewBitcoinCRYPTO:BTCUSDAlchemyMarketsOn the weekly timeframe, select log scale and you'll see a rising channel stretching from 2019 to the present day. Although Bitcoin closed below it for the past several months, price has now pushed back into the channel. If it can continue holding weekly closes above the lower boundary, that area should start acting as support again. One technical reason for the recovery could be the 200W-EMA (0.25sd) band shown in purple, which Bitcoin reacted from before reclaiming the channel. ...So what now? My personal view is that fundamental macros can continue to support Bitcoin's rise at least into the midterm elections on Nov 3rd. Why? The Federal Reserve still has more reason to avoid aggressively hiking rates, while the broader macro backdrop has recently become more supportive for risk assets. US markets have also historically shown some midterm-election seasonality, where weakness earlier in the year can be followed by stronger performance in Q3 and Q4. Those effects could spillover in Bitcoin as investors look for higher beta risk-on assets. Here is my breakdown on the daily timeframe: The reason why I'm still not ready to call this the beginning of a new Bitcoin cycle is because we don't yet have a major structural change on the daily timeframe. Even if we do get one, $103K remains a major overhead resistance. The weekly channel itself also gives some pretty extreme upside levels: roughly $200K at the midline and $600K near the top of the channel. From current prices, that's roughly a 2.5x and 7.6x increase in Bitcoin's market cap. At those levels, Bitcoin starts entering the same market-cap conversation as assets like Nvidia and half of the Mag7, all of which are competing for investor capital. Am I ready to assume it happens within the remaining months of Q4? No. But can Bitcoin get there in the future? Absolutely. Trade safe and have a great day. -Yang