BTC: The Key Level Between a Bull Cycle and a TrapBitcoin all time history indexINDEX:BTCUSDArthurshSince last Wednesday, the hottest topic in my circle of friends (and in many other places, I’m sure) has been whether this move marks the beginning of a new bullish cycle or is simply a bull trap. Two weeks ago, I shared my BTC analysis using the weekly and daily charts. On the weekly chart, I highlighted the importance of the trendline that had held since late 2018, until June 2026, when the price finally broke below it. BTC then found support in an area where two significant technical indicators converged: the 200-week moving average (blue line) and the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $57,778, just $30 above the eventual bottom at $57,748. This Fibonacci level measures the entire move that started in November 2022 and peaked in September 2025. The explosive move we’ve seen over the last few days came after two months of consolidation inside a symmetrical triangle, with BTC trading in a range between $58K and $67K. For me, the most important indicator for determining whether we’ve started a new bull cycle or are looking at a bull trap is the yellow trendline that was broken in June 2026. There is a very common pattern in technical analysis where, after a major trendline breaks to the downside, price attempts to reclaim it but often fails, especially on the first attempt. Here is an example of a failed reclaim of a trendline: It’s the total crypto market cap chart, where we can see a trendline that held from August 2024 until November 2025. After breaking below it, the price consolidated for a few weeks before attempting to reclaim the trendline. For about a month, price made several attempts to get back above it, but ultimately failed each time. Now, back to the BTC weekly chart. For me, the key question is whether Bitcoin can successfully reclaim this major trendline. That will be my main gauge for determining whether we’re entering a new bull cycle or looking at another bull trap. I expect BTC to spend at least a few days consolidating around this area, and by the end of that consolidation, we should have a much clearer idea of which way the wind is blowing. Another technical indicator I’ll be watching closely is the weekly RSI. We can see that the RSI has been respecting the same trendline since March 2024, and it’s currently right at that resistance. A clean breakout above this RSI trendline would be another strong signal that momentum is shifting toward a new bullish cycle. Now I want to zoom in on the daily chart, because it’s also giving us some important clues: On the daily chart, we can see that BTC consolidated between $58K and $67K inside a symmetrical triangle that developed over roughly two months. There are a few very interesting things to note here. First, during the breakout, Bitcoin broke above the 200-day moving average (blue line) for the first time since November 2025, which is a very bullish sign. Using the classic symmetrical triangle method to project targets, we get $69,330 for Target 1 and $75,313 for Target 2. One thing to keep in mind: when a breakout happens this quickly, fueled by strong FOMO and short covering, it’s quite common for the price to move significantly beyond the traditional triangle targets as we saw here. The RSI on the daily chart reached an extreme level of almost 87, so a pullback was expected. That said, with Bitcoin, it’s not unusual to see the RSI remain at extremely high levels for an extended period of time. Currently, the price is holding just above the key trendline, and I believe the 75k-77k area should now act as a strong support zone. As I mentioned earlier, I expect a consolidation phase here, which could last anywhere from a few days to several weeks. There are plenty of positive signs, as I’ve shown throughout this analysis, that Bitcoin could be starting a new bull cycle. But for me, the most important thing is holding above this trendline. At this point, I think it’s still too early to say that the bear market is behind us but there are definitely reasons to be optimistic.