XAUUSD – LEO MAPS 4 WAVES TO 4,723Gold vs US DollarPEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDLeo_WarRoom🚀 XAUUSD – LEO MAPS 4 WAVES TO 4,723 Leo | 25/08/2026 (Tuesday, 11:00 UTC) 🌍 REALTIME MACRO Gold spot: 4,633 – 4,646 USD/oz, currently 4,637 (TradingEconomics: -0.32% on the day, +13.73% month, +36.64% YoY). TradingEconomics | Investing DXY: 98.99 (Yahoo) / 99.04 (MarketWatch) – USD sideway around multi-month lows, session range 98.95 – 99.07. Yahoo | MarketWatch 10Y Treasury: 4.70 – 4.74% (CNBC 4.70%, FRED 4.74%) – flat, no obstacle. CNBC | FRED Fed: holding at 3.50 – 3.75% (since 12/2025). FOMC 16/09: 58.6% hold / 41.4% hike 25bp (CME FedWatch 24/08). CME FedWatch Jackson Hole 27-29/08 – Fed Chair Warsh keynote on 28/08. First major speech in his role as Chair, focus on inflation + long-term framework → two-way volatility almost guaranteed. Barron's | WSJ Today's calendar: CB Consumer Confidence at 01:00 Vietnam time (forecast 90.3, prior 90.8) + Barkin speaking at 23:30 & 07:00+1 (hawkish, USD firm slightly). 📈 READING THE CHART (LEO'S PROVIDED IMAGE) Current price: 4,640.94 (countdown 13:14). Top resistance (black): 4,720. Mid resistance (green): 4,690 – aligns with a previous swing high. Intermediate resistance (middle black): 4,678. Support (red): 4,603.50. Bottom support (lower black): 4,580. Blue zig-zag arrows: two paths drawn → the darker path illustrates 4,580 → 4,690 → 4,678 → 4,720 (exactly the 4-wave structure Leo is playing). Large green arrow: from ~4,580 shooting up to 4,720 – confirming the end-of-week upside thrust. 📌 Cross-check vs. the user's scenario (4,604 / 4,583 → 4,690 → 4,675 → 4,723) – matches the chart: 4,604 ≈ red 4,603.5; 4,583 ≈ bottom 4,580; 4,690 = green line; 4,675 ≈ middle black 4,678; 4,723 ≈ top black 4,720. The few-point gaps are spread/slippage – Leo keeps the user's numbers as-is. 🌊 THE 4 WAVES LEO IS PLAYING Wave 1 – Sweep down to 4,604 / 4,583 (first mitigation) Technical: Bulls take profit between 4,640 – 4,690, pushing price back to test red support at 4,603.5 (≈ 4,604) or the deeper bottom black at 4,580 (≈ 4,583) if sellers press harder. Candles on the left show a double-top + recent downtrend already swept, now starting to consolidate. Macro: Barkin turns hawkish (23:30 + 07:00+1) + CB Confidence > 90.8 → USD firms slightly → gold pulls back. Wave 2 – Bounce to 4,690 (first displacement) Technical: Fib 1.272 from the 4,580 → 4,690 leg lines up with the green resistance. Triggered on an M15 BOS above 4,620 + volume spike. Macro: PBoC + Chinese ETFs keep absorbing. Hormuz tension + EU inflation hot (Spain CPI +3.5% YoY) keep the safe-haven premium alive. Wave 3 – Technical pull-back to 4,675 (second mitigation) Technical: Hits the middle black line at 4,678 (≈ 4,675). Top-side longs take profit waiting for Warsh. Macro: Jackson Hole 27-29/08 → classic "sell the news" before the event. Warsh may sound "neutral with caution" → two-way volatility. Wave 4 – Top at 4,723 (final displacement) Technical: Fib 1.618 + black top resistance 4,720 (≈ 4,723). The big green arrow confirms the end-of-week upside thrust. Macro: Warsh dovish + end-of-August portfolio rebalance + Hormuz premium push gold "gliding" to the top. 🛠️ TRADING PLAN (M15 / H1) 🔴 Wave 1 – Sell the sweep: Entry 4,640 – 4,660 (M15 bearish BOS), SL 4,690, TP 4,604 → 4,583. R:R ~1:0.8 → 1:1.5. 🟢 Wave 2 – Buy the dip: Entry 4,604 – 4,620 or 4,583 – 4,600 (M15 bullish BOS), SL 4,570, TP 4,690 → 4,723. R:R ~1:1.4 → 1:2.3. 🔴 Wave 3 – Scalp short: Entry 4,685 – 4,695 (clear distribution), SL 4,710, TP 4,675. R:R ~1:0.7 (only on a confirmed reversal). 🟢 Wave 4 – Buy the breakout: Entry 4,690 (M15 close + BOS) or pull-back 4,675 – 4,680, SL 4,665, TP 4,723 → 4,750. R:R ~1:1.6 → 1:2.5. 🚫 Invalidation: M15 close below 4,570 cancels Waves 2 + 4. Warsh extremely hawkish + USD breaks 100 → test 4,500 – 4,442, cancel the entire weekly plan. ⚖️ CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 1️⃣ Jackson Hole = "bomb" of the week: cut size by 50%, take profits in stages, don't hold overnight unless already in profit. 2️⃣ After TP1 of each wave → move SL to breakeven immediately. 3️⃣ Avoid the noise zone 4,650 – 4,680 – you'll get chopped up. Only trade at 4,604 / 4,583 or after breaking 4,690. 4️⃣ Barkin at 23:30 & 07:00+1 – wait for these sessions, confirm M15 BOS before entering. 5️⃣ Risk management > prediction – survive first, profit second. 📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is for reference only and is not investment advice. Always confirm signals on M1/M5 before entering any trade. — Leo 🥇