Ahead of the Chandigarh civic polls, the BJP has launched an internal party survey to assess the winnability of its potential candidates, with the party high command in Delhi understood to be seeking direct feedback on the ground on aspirants’ prospects. The polls are to be held by the end of this year.The exercise could spell trouble for some sitting BJP councillors, with sources indicating that not all incumbents may be retained if the survey finds their electoral prospects weak.“The leadership in Delhi is conducting a survey. None of us has been told the details, and we do not know who is conducting it, but the exercise is definitely on. The feedback from the ground will matter,” a senior BJP leader said.AAP bigger threatWithin the BJP’s internal assessment, the AAP is being viewed as a bigger electoral threat than the Congress, particularly because of its continued hold in several city colonies and densely populated pockets. While the Congress remains a traditional rival, party leaders believe AAP’s organisational presence and voter connect in areas such as Khuda Ali Sher and other colonies could translate into a stronger challenge on the ground. The assessment has prompted the BJP to keep a closer watch on AAP’s grassroots network, rather than being lulled by its reduced strength in the current Municipal Corporation House.Sources said names being reconsidered in BJP include Dalip Kumar, Harjit Singh, Bimla Dubey, wife of BJP leader Anil Dubey, Gurcharan Singh, Poonam and Gurbax Rawat. The final decision, however, is expected to hinge on their winnability rather than merely their position within the local organisation. Certain councillors like Kanwar Rana have supporters and opponents both.The survey assumes significance at a time when factionalism within the Chandigarh BJP is becoming increasingly visible, with different groups pitching their own candidates for the upcoming polls. Several leaders are understood to be lobbying for aspirants considered close to their respective camps.But the party high command, sources said, is keen to keep such internal equations out of the ticket-selection process.Story continues below this ad“Delhi is looking at the winnability quotient. They will not simply go by which leader is backing whom. If the survey says a candidate can win, that will carry weight,” said another senior BJP leader.The candidature of Poonam and Gurbax Rawat, who moved to the BJP from AAP and Congress respectively, has also triggered discussions within the party. Sources said the Chandigarh BJP chief is not particularly keen on their candidature. However, their final fate, like that of other aspirants, is likely to depend on the assessment conducted by the high command.The contest for tickets is also attracting several old players. Former mayors Davesh Moudgil and Rajesh Kalia, both of whom lost the previous civic election, are understood to be making efforts to return to the electoral fray. Some senior leaders may also seek tickets for their wives, adding to the already crowded field of aspirants.AAP factor no longer being taken lightlyThe BJP’s internal exercise also comes against the backdrop of its experience in the previous civic polls, when the local leadership was widely seen as having underestimated the AAP challenge.Story continues below this adIn the 2021 Chandigarh Municipal Corporation election, AAP emerged as the single largest party with 14 of the 35 seats, while the BJP won 12. The result was a significant dent to the BJP’s dominance in the city and demonstrated that AAP could make substantial inroads into the urban electorate.This time, however, BJP leaders say the party is not taking AAP lightly.“Last time, the AAP was underestimated by the local wing, though the Delhi leaders had warned. However, the AAP didn’t even have an organisational structure then; now it is seen as a bigger threat than Congress. The result was a wake-up call. Nobody in the organisation wants to make that mistake again,” a party insider said.Ground reports being discussed within BJP circles indicate that AAP’s support base remains strong in several colonies, including Khuda Ali Sher and other densely populated areas. The party’s local network and its ability to connect with voters in these pockets are being closely monitored by the BJP.Story continues below this adEarly indicationThe Chandigarh civic battle is also likely to have significance beyond the city. With the Punjab Assembly elections scheduled for next year, the performance of political parties in Chandigarh could offer an early indication of urban voter sentiment and organisational strength ahead of the state contest.For the BJP, therefore, the civic polls are shaping up as a test not only of its candidates but also of its ability to manage factionalism, anti-incumbency and the AAP challenge.The internal survey could ultimately redraw the party’s electoral line-up, with sitting councillors, former mayors and newcomers all facing the same test.In the emerging BJP calculus, loyalty may help secure a ticket—but only winnability is likely to secure a seat on the ballot.Story continues below this adBJP setback in 2021 and present scenarioFollowing the recent defections of councillors from Congress and AAP to the BJP, the political arithmetic in the Chandigarh Municipal Corporation has changed significantly. The BJP now has 18 councillors, emerging with a clear numerical advantage, while the AAP’s strength has come down to 10. Congress has been left with the remaining seats, further weakening its position in the House.The shift, however, may not necessarily translate into an easy electoral victory for the BJP. The defections have strengthened the party’s numbers in the current House but have also added former AAP and Congress leaders to an already crowded ticket race. With the internal party survey now focusing on winnability, the BJP leadership will have to decide whether electoral performance, organisational loyalty or the ability to retain the vote base should determine its candidates for the upcoming civic polls.