BTC's +23% Weekly Breakout: the end of the Bear Market? Bitcoin/USDCAPITALCOM:BTCUSDmickael_coudert_87Bitcoin just printed an explosive weekly breakout candle: the week of August 17 opened at ~62,976$ and closed at ~77,369$, a +22.9% surge in a single week. After months grinding near the range lows, a candle of this magnitude has revived the "the bottom is in, the bear market is over" narrative and prior cycles make that story tempting. But the point of this analysis is simple: even a move this violent has not broken the weekly structure. Price now sits around 78,400$, and it remains capped below two major overhead resistances. Until both give way, this is a strong rally into resistance, not a confirmed trend reversal. Resistance 1 - The 50-week SMA (~80,910$). For all its power, the breakout stalled right underneath the 50-week simple moving average at 80,910$. Price is roughly 3% below it and hasn't reclaimed it on a weekly close. Worse, the SMA is still sloping downward. As long as that holds, the 50-week SMA acts as dynamic resistance and the medium-term trend stays capped. Resistance 2 - The Ichimoku cloud (Kumo). This is the far bigger hurdle, and the exact levels make it clear. At the current bar, Senkou Span A sits at ~86,116$ and Span B at ~93,197$ meaning the cloud base alone is ~10% above current price. The cloud is bearish (Span A below Span B) and, critically, stays red across the entire forward projection into February 2027 with no twist. It also thickens dramatically, from ~7,000 points wide at the current bar to ~25,000 by late January 2027, as Span A falls toward ~66,350$ while Span B holds flat near 93,000$. That's a wide, heavy block of supply overhead. While price trades beneath a red cloud this deep, the weekly bias simply is not bullish, no matter how impressive a single candle looks. What's actually constructive here. Two things support the bulls short-term: price has reclaimed both Tenkan (69,462$) and Kijun (70,248$), and the RSI has surged from ~40 to 57.9 above the 50 midline but not yet overbought. So there's genuine momentum. But momentum below the cloud is a recovery within a bearish structure, not a confirmed reversal. What confirmation actually requires. For the bottom to be confirmed, I want to see BTC: 1. Post a weekly close above the 50-week SMA (~80,910$) 2. Break into and above the Kumo (~86,116$+) 3. Ideally, the cloud eventually flip to positive polarity (Span A crossing back above Span B). A candle that stops ~10% short of the cloud is momentum, not a structural trend change. Levels I'm watching: - Immediate resistance: 50-week SMA 80,910$ - Major resistance: cloud base (Span A) 86,116$, rising to full cloud at 93,197$ - Support: Kijun 70,248$ and Tenkan 69,462$ just below then the breakout origin ~63,000$ - Bullish invalidation: a weekly close back below ~63,000$ would signal the breakout failed and the lows are being retested Bottom line: Explosive momentum, but not confirmation. One +23% candle doesn't end a bear market while price is still trapped below both the 50-week SMA and a thick, negative Ichimoku cloud sitting ~10% overhead. I stay neutral until BTC closes a weekly candle above 80,910 and pushes into the cloud. Until then, this is a breakout toward resistance not through it.