Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives have pulled back into first place — and Premier Doug Ford’s approval has sharply improved — as the province becomes the political and economic flashpoint of the Canada–U.S. trade war, according to a new Liaison Strategies poll.The survey, conducted Aug. 23–24, shows the PCs at 39 per cent among decided and leaning voters, ahead of the Ontario Liberals at 35 per cent, the NDP at 20 per cent, other parties at three per cent, and the Greens at two per cent. The results land just days after new U.S. tariffs took effect and as Ford and U.S. President Donald Trump traded personal insults in a public feud over trade.Ford’s approval rebounds — but remains underwaterFord’s approval rating has climbed from 24 per cent in July to 36 per cent, a notable jump as the trade dispute dominates headlines. Still, 61 per cent of respondents say they disapprove of his performance.Only 27 per cent believe Ontario is heading in the right direction, compared to 72 per cent who say the province is on the wrong track.Related:Ford stands by Carney’s decision to walk away from ‘bad deal’ with the U.S.‘He’s a loser’: Ford and Trump exchange insults as bad blood from trade war spills over“This is a very different Ontario race than the one we saw in July,” said David Valentin, Principal at Liaison Strategies. “The obvious context is the trade war. This poll was in field right as the latest U.S. tariffs took effect and as Ford and Trump turned the fight into something personal. Whether voters like Ford in general or not, this is the kind of issue that can temporarily change the frame around a premier.”Ontario Premier Doug Ford speaks at a press conference in Toronto, on Tuesday, May 12, 2026. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young.Ontarians strongly back retaliation against U.S. tariffsThe poll tested several measures Ford urged Prime Minister Mark Carney to consider in an Aug. 17 letter. Ontarians overwhelmingly support the most visible retaliatory options:83 per cent support matching U.S. tariffs dollar‑for‑dollar.85 per cent support keeping American alcohol out of LCBO stores.72 per cent support adding a charge to electricity exported to the U.S.Support becomes more cautious when measures risk economic fallout at home.42 per cent say governments should take stronger action even if it creates economic costs.35 per cent want equal weight on pressure and economic risk.18 per cent want governments to limit measures to reduce costs.Federal Conservative voters are consistently the most resistant to harsher retaliation.When asked which action governments should prioritize, 32 per cent chose additional tariffs, 17 per cent chose more financial support for affected workers and businesses, 16 per cent chose restricting electricity or critical‑mineral exports, while 15 per cent chose to ban American alcohol from LCBO stores.The most concerning option for respondents was restricting electricity or critical‑mineral exports, at 24 per cent, reflecting worries about impacts on jobs, prices, and investment.Liaison surveyed 1,500 Ontarians using IVR technology via landline and mobile RDD. Data was weighted to 2021 Census targets. Margin of error: ±2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.