6 min readAug 26, 2026 03:55 PM IST First published on: Aug 26, 2026 at 03:55 PM ISTAhead of the October 27 Knesset election, it appears that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will go to any lengths to return to office. The controversy over building 1,200 housing units in E-1 is just the latest example. East 1, or E-1 for short, is a small piece of territory, about 12 square kilometres, in the West Bank. It is part of the municipal limits of the settlement of Ma’ale Adumim and lies east of East Jerusalem. Ma’ale Adumim was established as a settlement in 1975, when Yitzhak Rabin was prime minister, and was upgraded to city status in 1991. With close to 35,000 Israeli citizens (2015 figures), it is one of the largest Israeli settlements in the occupied territories.Since the Oslo Accords of 1993, there have been plans to connect Ma’ale Adumim to Jerusalem’s municipal boundaries. The purpose was twofold: To provide territorial continuity between the two and to expand and consolidate Jerusalem’s demographic and strategic security.AdvertisementAlso Read | Recognising a Palestinian state may not stop Israel’s onslaught. But it still mattersUnder the Taba Agreement of September 1995 (signed just weeks before Rabin’s assassination), the E-1 enclave was part of Area C, where Israel has complete security control. The area is largely uninhabited and covers about 12,000 dunums, or about 12 square kilometres. Since January 1994, weeks after the signing of the Declaration of Principles with Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat, various Israeli governments have toyed with the idea of establishing a settlement in E-1. Under the Clinton Parameters of December 2000, E-1 was supposed to be part of a swap deal in which Israel would annex Ma’ale Adumim, including E-1, in return for withdrawing from 94-96 per cent of the West Bank. To curb Israeli efforts, the Palestinians have been building individual housing units in the area, which Israel periodically demolishes. Israel’s prolonged reluctance to pursue new settlement activity has largely been shaped by American and international criticism.The latest effort comes amid the forthcoming election. While Likud, led by Netanyahu, still leads the opinion polls, several surveys indicate a dip in the party’s seat count. From 32 seats in 2022, pollsters predict a range of 20 to 32 seats, with most forecasting seats in the 20s. Centre-right and right-wing parties appear to be the main gainers at Netanyahu’s expense. According to observers, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the leader of the ultranationalist and pronouncedly anti-Arab Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power) party, is the real challenger to Netanyahu. As the minister of national security and a member of the security cabinet, Ben-Gvir has been a key factor in Netanyahu’s hardline security stance since October 7.While Israel’s response to Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Islamic Republic of Iran has delivered tangible short-term military gains, Netanyahu is struggling to translate them into political gains. Israel is more secure today than in October 2023. The disarmament of Hamas and Hezbollah has become a precondition for peace, stability, and the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, respectively. Except for Iran, no major power endorses, let alone contributes to, the survival and strengthening of the “Axis of Resistance”. Under President Ahmed al-Sharaa, Syria is no longer the conduit for Iranian arms supplies to the Shia militant groups in Lebanon.AdvertisementYet, if the opinion polls are any indication, the military “victory” is proving insufficient to win more votes for the Likud. Within the party, Netanyahu has established unchallengeable authority over seat allocations. Out of the top 30 seats, he managed to reserve 11 for candidates considered loyal to him. This pushed several other Likud figures to the margins, with no real chance of entering the Knesset.However, securing broader endorsement of his leadership among the Israeli population is more challenging. A considerable segment of the population has not forgotten his role, or lack thereof, in the October 7 terror attack. Several senior military and security figures admitted responsibility and resigned. This has not been the case for the political leadership. PM Netanyahu has not taken any direct personal responsibility for Israel’s 9/11 moment. True to his style, he has shifted the blame and has not gone beyond saying that “everyone, from the top to the bottom, shares responsibility”.you may likeAbove all, Netanyahu and his cabinet have consistently resisted public calls for a national inquiry commission headed by the sitting president of the Supreme Court (equivalent to the Chief Justice of India). In the past, Israel had two such commissions, led by Shimon Agranat (over the Yom Kippur War of 1973) and Yitzhak Kahan (over the Sabra and Shatila massacre of 1982). Under Israeli law, everyone, including the prime minister, would have to testify under oath and could be cross-examined. So far, Netanyahu has been dodging this. However, should he feel it necessary, he might reverse course and make it an electoral promise.The new settlement construction in E-1 is part of Netanyahu’s efforts to shore up support for his political alliance. A victory of the right-religious coalition is essential to Netanyahu’s political future. Losing a few seats to the far right is preferable to handing them to the centre-left Opposition. One should view Netanyahu’s reluctance to endorse and embrace the American disarmament plans for the Gaza Strip in this context. Appearing weak or submitting to US President Donald Trump’s diktats will cost him more votes than a defiant posture. Thus, despite the near-unanimous Arab-European chorus against his E-1 plans, Netanyahu is driven more by electoral calculations on an issue that has remained dormant for over three decades.The writer teaches contemporary Middle East at Jawaharlal Nehru University