Buy the dip with 10830 to break

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Buy the dip with 10830 to breakUK 100, DailySPREADEX:FTSEhilsdentradingThe charts have improved quite noticeably from last week. Friday produced a strong bullish daily candle, taking the FTSE back above the short-term moving averages, and the overnight market is holding most of that gain around 10,810. Friday's cash FTSE closed at 10,816.6, +0.6%, helped particularly by commodity-linked stocks and miners. There is a complication this morning: the broader global tone is fairly risk-off. Asian equities have fallen and oil is lower as markets assess Iran-related sanctions and elevated bond yields. That leaves me with a bullish intraday bias, but I would buy a pullback rather than chase the opening price. For me, 10,789 is the line in the sand this morning. Friday's move was strong enough that I don't particularly want to fight it while we're above the pivot. So my highest-conviction setup is not buying 10,810 at the open. I'd much rather see an opening shakeout towards 10,785–795, let weaker longs get flushed out, and then buy the recovery if 10,789 holds. If that happens, 10,830 followed by 10,852 are my preferred upside objectives. If 10,789 breaks and subsequently acts as resistance, I'd abandon the long thesis and switch to looking for 10,760/748. In short: buy the dip above 10,789; buy the breakout above 10,830; turn bearish on a confirmed loss of 10,789.