NVIDIA: Earnings and Jackson Hole Put the AI Rally to the TestNVIDIA CorporationBATS:NVDAActivTrades By Ion Jauregui – Analyst at ActivTrades NVIDIA is facing a decisive week for the technology market. The company will report its second-quarter fiscal results on August 26, while the Jackson Hole symposium will take place from August 27 to 29. Both events come at a particularly sensitive time for markets, following the recent pressure exerted by rising U.S. Treasury yields on technology companies and the high valuations associated with artificial intelligence. NVIDIA’s results will be particularly relevant because they will help determine whether the strong growth in AI-related demand continues to support market expectations. The market continues to have very high expectations for the company. NVIDIA’s growth remains closely linked to investment by major technology companies in artificial intelligence infrastructure, but precisely this strength means that any deviation from forecasts could generate a significant reaction in the stock price. At the same time, the evolution of interest rates will remain decisive. A more favourable rate environment could once again support growth companies, while elevated yields could favour a rotation of capital towards other segments of the market. In my view, this is not necessarily an outflow of money from technology, but rather a movement of capital from areas with more demanding valuations towards other opportunities within the market. From a technical perspective, NVIDIA closed on Friday at $214.59, after correcting throughout the week from $227.90. The pullback has once again taken the price towards the support observed on July 22, while the stock continues to develop a range-bound process in an area close to its highs. The moving averages remain upwardly directional, meaning that the main structure remains positive. However, the indicators are beginning to show a loss of momentum. The RSI is around 50%, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers, while the MACD has begun to lose strength, with the MACD line and signal line still above zero, although with an incipiently negative histogram. For now, this points to a possible consolidation or correction phase, but it does not confirm a change in trend. NVIDIA’s reaction will therefore depend on the combination of earnings and monetary policy expectations. If the results confirm the strength of artificial intelligence demand and Jackson Hole delivers a positive message for risk assets, the stock could recover $227.90 and subsequently move towards the highs of $236.51. Conversely, if the results disappoint or the Federal Reserve adopts a less favourable tone for equities, selling pressure could increase and push the price towards the strong support at $190. As long as the moving averages remain upwardly oriented, I consider the main scenario to remain one of consolidation within a positive trend. The loss of momentum reflected by the MACD nevertheless calls for close attention to support levels. NVIDIA is in a defining area: a breakout of the highs could reactivate the bullish move, while a loss of the current support levels would open the door to a deeper correction towards $190. This week, earnings and Jackson Hole could provide the catalyst needed to determine which end of the range is ultimately broken. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance and forecasting are not a synonym of a reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk. Political risk is unpredictable. Central bank actions can vary. Platform tools do not guarantee success.