USDJPY: Yen has not won yet, but the dollar is losing controlU.S. Dollar / Japanese YenFOREXCOM:USDJPYYenSenseiJapanese wisdom says: “After rain, the ground hardens” — 雨降って地固まる. I’m looking at USDJPY after the last two sessions, and the story is not simple yen strength. The pair is still holding above 158.10, but the dollar failed to rebuild a clean bullish structure after the latest selloff. From the news side, the pressure is coming from three places: rising U.S. bond-market stress, renewed focus on Fed/PCE inflation expectations, and the fact that intervention risk still caps aggressive USDJPY longs near 159.50–160.00. At the same time, JGB yields remain important because higher Japanese yields make BoJ normalization expectations more credible. On the chart, USDJPY has rebounded from 158.10 and is now testing the key upside zone around 159.14–159.30. Price is back above the EMA 9 and EMA 20, but the recovery is not fully confirmed while 159.72 remains resistance. The way I read it: the yen has not taken full control, but the dollar also failed to win back the field. Above 159.30, buyers can try to push toward 159.72. A rejection from this zone would keep the pair vulnerable and bring 158.87, then 158.10, back into focus. Trade idea: Sell a failed recovery: Entry: 159.25–159.30 after rejection Stop Loss: 159.75 Take Profit 1: 158.72 This setup only makes sense if USDJPY fails to hold above 159.30. A clean hourly close above 159.72 invalidates the bearish idea and reopens the 160.00 intervention-risk zone. Breakout or another failed recovery? This material is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a personalized investment recommendation. The yen. The Bank of Japan. Carry trade. One market — analyzed to its core. — YenSensei