XAU/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK — Pullback First, Then HigherGold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDCatherine_XAUUSD 🟡 XAU/USD WEEKLY OUTLOOK — Pullback First, Then Higher My base case for next week: Gold pulls back first, then resumes the bullish trend. Gold remains structurally bullish, but after this week’s aggressive rally, I don’t think chasing the market at elevated levels offers the best risk/reward. My preference is simple: Let Gold pull back, wait for support, then look for the next long. 📈 What Happened This Week? Gold started the second leg of its rally from the 4310 W-bottom support and broke through two major psychological levels: 4500 → 4600 The bullish momentum was impressive, especially during Thursday and Friday. However, the market did not accelerate higher in a straight line. On Friday, Gold repeatedly tested the 4605 area and faced selling pressure. Price pulled back toward 4560–4580 several times before buyers stepped back in. Eventually, Gold pushed higher toward 4632, but the weekly candle closed around 4603. To me, this price action is important. The bulls are still in control, but the market is clearly becoming more volatile at the highs. 🌎 Fundamental Picture The two major drivers behind Gold’s August rally have been: 🔹 Geopolitical risk 🔹 Expectations surrounding Fed monetary policy Neither bullish driver has completely disappeared. That is why I still believe the medium-term trend remains bullish, with the possibility of Gold eventually targeting 4750 and potentially 4900 if the broader structure continues to hold. However, markets need time to digest strong moves. The short-term environment is different. The USD Index is beginning to show signs of a potential double-bottom formation, which means a corrective rebound in the dollar could put temporary pressure on Gold. So I’m bullish on the bigger picture, but I’m expecting some short-term digestion first. 📊 Technical Picture The 4H chart is showing a clear bearish divergence, suggesting that the current rally may need a technical correction. That does NOT automatically mean the bull trend is over. For me, the key is how Gold reacts around support. 🟢 First Support: 4550–4560 This is the first area I want to watch. If Gold pulls back into this zone, holds support and produces a bullish reaction, I will consider the correction relatively shallow. From there, the next targets are: 4600 → 4630 → 4750 🟢 Major Support: 4490–4500 If 4550 breaks decisively, I would expect a deeper correction toward 4490–4500. This is a much more important structural area and represents a major accumulation zone from the second leg of the rally. If buyers defend this area, I would consider it a very attractive location for a trend-following long. 🔴 Resistance: 4600–4630 This remains the immediate upside area to watch. A clean breakout and sustained hold above 4630 would signal that the bulls are ready to resume the next leg higher. 💰 MY TRADING PLAN 🟢 SETUP #1 — BUY THE FIRST PULLBACK BUY: 4550–4560 🛑 SL: 4535 🎯 TP1: 4600 🎯 TP2: 4630 🎯 TP3: 4750 This is my preferred setup if the first support holds. 🟢 SETUP #2 — BUY THE DEEPER PULLBACK If 4550 breaks: BUY: 4490–4500 🛑 SL: 4470 🎯 TP1: 4550–4560 🎯 TP2: 4600 🎯 TP3: 4630+ This would offer a better risk/reward if Gold gives us a deeper correction. 🔴 OPTIONAL COUNTER-TREND SHORT If Gold rallies directly into 4600–4610+ and shows a clear rejection, aggressive traders can consider a small short to capture the expected correction. SELL: 4600–4610 🛑 SL: 4630 🎯 TP1: 4550–4560 If 4550 breaks, the next target becomes: 🎯 TP2: 4490–4500 This is a counter-trend trade, so I would keep the position size smaller. 🧠 MY PERSONAL VIEW I don't want to predict the exact top. The market has already shown us several times that trying to short every new high can be expensive when the underlying trend is strong. For next week, I’m not bearish on Gold. I’m simply expecting: Pullback → Support → Accumulation → Next leg higher As long as 4490–4500 holds, I will continue to favor buying dips rather than selling into weakness. The key mistake I want to avoid is chasing price after a vertical rally. I would rather buy Gold at 4550 or 4500 than chase it at 4630. That’s where the risk/reward becomes much more attractive. 🔥 WEEKLY GAME PLAN 📌 Bias: Bullish 📌 Short-term: Expect correction first 📌 First Buy Zone: 4550–4560 📌 Major Buy Zone: 4490–4500 📌 Resistance: 4600–4630 📌 Bullish Target: 4750+ 📌 Strategy: Buy the Pullback No chasing. No guessing the top. Wait for the level. ❤️ Like if you agree with the bullish trend. ➕ Follow me for more XAU/USD setups and weekly market updates. 💬 Comment below: Are you expecting 4550 to hold, or do we get a deeper pullback toward 4500 first? 🟢 LONG — Pullback to 4550 🟢 LONG — Deeper pullback to 4500 🔴 SHORT — Rejection near 4600–4610 Let’s see how Gold plays it next week. 📈🔥