XAUUSD:Why I'm Not Shorting This Pullback, and Where I'm BuyingGold vs US-DollarBLACKBULL:XAUUSDmjalavXAUUSD is trading 4,603 as I write this. That's 93 dollars off the 4,696.84 high, and everything below the daily looks broken. I think that's the trap. THE STRUCTURE The daily is still an uptrend and it's getting ignored. Higher highs the whole way up: 4,304, 4,371, 4,449, 4,540, 4,632, 4,680, 4,696.84. The last higher low that matters is 4,508.69 and price hasn't been near it. Three ugly sessions don't undo that. 1H and 4H are bearish, no argument from me. Lower highs at 4,696.84, 4,673.72, 4,643.04, 4,617.98. Lower lows at 4,605.26, 4,583.02, 4,564.69. The 4H turned when 4,583.02 took out the 4,594.52 higher low. So the honest read is bearish internals inside a bullish container. Shorting that pays for a while and then hands it all back in two candles when the impulse resumes. I've done it. Not doing it here. What I'm watching instead is the low timeframe, and it's already turning. Since 4,564.69 the 15m has printed higher lows at 4,600.68 and 4,599.86, with higher highs at 4,612.87, 4,616.65 and 4,617.98. The turn usually starts down there. THE ONE NUMBER: 4,643.04 Last confirmed swing high on the 1H. Also the last confirmed swing high on the 4H. Same price on both, which rarely lines up this cleanly. It sits right on the volume profile POC at 4,640 from the 4,450 to 4,696 leg, the heaviest volume node on the chart. A close above it flips both timeframes bullish in one move and turns the thickest resistance here into support. Below it I have no interest in buying at market. Early warning is 4,617.98. A 1H close above that breaks the descending trendline off the high and gives a minor bullish BOS. That's not an entry. That's when I open the 15m chart. SETUP A: TREND-CHANGE LONG In order, no skipping: 1. 1H close above 4,643.04 2. 4H close above 4,643.04 3. On 15m, wait for the pullback into 4,635-4,645 and a 15m CHoCH 4. On 5m, enter on CHoCH plus a bullish engulfing or hammer Entry 4,641 Stop 4,617 TP1 4,673.72 / TP2 4,696.84 / TP3 4,730 R:R 2.3 to TP2 SETUP B: DISCOUNT LONG (the one I actually want) If it sells off first. Demand sits at 4,553-4,558.50: an unmitigated 1H bullish FVG at 4,556.22-4,558.48 stacked on the volume profile Value Area Low at 4,553.18. That's directly beneath the 4,564.69 low, which is exactly where the stops are sitting. Sweep into it, 15m bullish CHoCH inside the zone, 5m confirmation. Entry 4,558 Stop 4,544 TP1 4,583 / TP2 4,617.98 / TP3 4,643.04 R:R 6.1 Hard rule: no 15m CHoCH inside the zone, no trade. If it slices straight through, it's headed for the next one. SETUP C: DEEP FLUSH 4,489-4,522. Daily higher low at 4,508.69, another unmitigated 1H bullish FVG at 4,489.31-4,509.97, daily order block. This is where the daily trend holds or it doesn't. Entry 4,505-4,515, stop 4,485. INVALIDATION Daily close below 4,508.69. That's a daily CHoCH and the correction becomes a reversal. Every long above is cancelled and I'd rather wait for a new base than argue with the chart. WHAT I'M NOT DOING Buying 4,603 at market. There's a bearish FVG at 4,621.69-4,624.36 and the order block plus POC at 4,635-4,646 sitting directly overhead, with the descending trendline around 4,617. Ten points of room into the heaviest supply on the chart isn't a trade, it's a donation. It's Friday too. Asian volume is running about a fifth of average, so nothing printing right now means much. I want London or the NY open before I act on any of it. Not financial advice. This is my plan and my risk. Do your own work.