NZDCHF Reversal Ahead? NZD/CHFOANDA:NZDCHFEdgeTradingJourneyNZDCHF is currently trading around 0.4787, inside a key Daily supply zone and near the upper boundary of the bullish structure that has driven the pair higher over the past few months. The latest COT data is particularly relevant. On NZD, Non-Commercial positioning improved significantly, with longs increasing by 1,395 contracts and shorts falling by 5,571. However, this happened while Open Interest dropped by 7,687 contracts. To me, this suggests that much of the improvement may be driven by short covering rather than strong new bullish positioning. CHF shows a different picture. Non-Commercial longs increased by 4,268 contracts, while shorts decreased by 916. More importantly, CHF Open Interest simultaneously increased by 3,875 contracts. In other words, while NZD positioning is improving alongside falling market participation, CHF positioning is improving while participation is expanding. This makes the CHF flow more convincing and supports my bearish bias on NZDCHF. Seasonality adds another layer of confluence. NZD has historically shown weakness during August across the 20-year, 15-year, 10-year and 5-year averages, while CHF seasonality is comparatively stronger. There is, however, an important warning signal: 69% of retail traders are already short NZDCHF, with only 31% long. From a contrarian perspective, this is potentially bullish and becomes even more relevant because the Daily market structure has not yet turned bearish. From a technical perspective, my main area of interest is 0.4785–0.4805. Price is trading inside Daily supply, close to recent highs and near liquidity above 0.4800. This is an excellent location to look for a reversal, but location alone is not enough for me to enter. Ideally, I want to see price sweep the highs around 0.4785–0.4805, reject the area and then produce a clear bearish structural shift on H1. If the bearish scenario is confirmed, my first area of interest is 0.4740–0.4730, followed by 0.4710. A decisive break below 0.4710 would make a deeper move toward 0.4650–0.4630 increasingly interesting. On the other hand, a convincing breakout and acceptance above approximately 0.4800–0.4810 would weaken my bearish thesis.