Oil Is Pricing a Deal Before the Barrels ReturnWTI Crude (OIL) / US DollarEASYMARKETS:OILUSDEvelyn_ReedWTI is back near 80 after another rejection from the mid-80s. The selloff makes sense on the headline level: markets are getting more optimistic about progress around the Strait of Hormuz. But the physical picture still looks tighter than the price action suggests. Traffic through Hormuz remains heavily disrupted, and the latest U.S. crude build was small. So the market is already pricing better supply conditions before they are fully visible. Technically, 79.5–80 is still holding. As long as that area and the rising support survive, the recovery structure is not broken. The first real test above is 86–87.5. If price gets rejected there again, the range stays intact. If diplomacy turns into actual normalisation of shipping and 80 fails, the geopolitical premium can unwind much faster. For now, oil is trading the promise of more supply, not the barrels themselves.