US500 4H: Key Support Test Ahead of NVIDIA & Jackson HoleS&P 500 IndexPURPLETRADING:US500LIVERMORE333US500 4H Analysis: Approaching Key Support Ahead of Major Events ■ Current Situation The 4-hour EMA dead cross remains in place, and the corrective trend from the August 13 high (7,817.45) is ongoing. Of particular note is the price action on August 21: despite a sharp drop in the VIX from the 16s into the low 15s, the index’s rebound was extremely limited. This highlights underlying selling pressure. As we head into the new week, the market is set up to test the key support at 7,624.47, with the potential for an overshoot. ■ Strategy Short-term, the advantage remains with sell-the-rally approaches. A technical bounce toward the yellow circle zone (near EMA20/50) remains possible after reaching 7,624.47. However, a clear break below 7,624.47 would significantly reduce the quality of any rebound, and expectations for a long-biased reaction in the yellow circle zone should be further scaled back. Key events next week include: August 26: NVIDIA earnings + PCE Deflator August 28: Jackson Hole (Warsh speech) Both have the potential to rewrite the market narrative. Rather than rushing into positions in the yellow circle zone, the higher-probability approach is to carefully assess the shift in trend and structure after these events pass. ■ Conclusion The current trend and structure remain downward. Priority is to monitor price action after the 7,624.47 test, evaluate the quality of any rebound against the event outcomes, and only then redefine structural short opportunities. Keeping “sitting out is also part of trading” in mind, we wait for higher-conviction setups. #US500 #SP500