JP225 : Potential H&S Formation – Sit Out Until Key Events PassJapan 225 IndexPURPLETRADING:JP225LIVERMORE333JP225 4H Analysis: Potential Large Head & Shoulders and Pre-Event Patience ■ Current Situation Following the 4-hour EMA dead cross on August 19, upside remains heavy. Structurally, the three highs since June (68,774 / 73,622 / 69,605) raise the possibility of a large Head & Shoulders top forming. A scenario of continued decline toward the thick yellow neckline, interrupted by intermittent rebounds, should be kept in view. ■ Strategy A short-term rebound from oversold conditions is possible, but the yellow circle zone (EMA20/50/200 confluence) stands as a strong resistance cluster. Downside levels to watch are the nearest support at 65,423.98 and the final defense line at 64,852.34. Next week brings a cluster of high-impact events — NVIDIA earnings, PCE Deflator, and Jackson Hole (including the Warsh speech) — that have the potential to fundamentally shift the market narrative. Relying solely on technicals in this environment carries elevated risk. ■ Conclusion The broader bias remains sell-the-rally after any rebound. However, the base stance until these key events pass is to sit out. Avoiding low risk-reward entries that expose positions to sharp two-way volatility is the top priority. Whether 64,852.34 holds or the structure breaks (neckline failure) will be assessed calmly through the post-event shift in trend and structure. #JP225 #Nikkei225