GOLD NEW WEEK, NEW ANALYSISGold US DollarVANTAGE:XAUUSDsamstoobadGOLD NEW WEEK, NEW ANALYSIS The Bigger Picture Gold enters the new week with a very clear bullish narrative. We have now printed three consecutive bullish weekly candles, with price breaking aggressively through the previous resistance structure. The breakout has taken gold back above the 4,500 psychological region and into a fresh three month high. The weekly move is not just a small continuation. Gold gained roughly 5.6% last week alone and is up around 14% over the last three weeks, showing how aggressively buyers have returned. That gives us the foundation for the next stage of the analysis: The question is no longer whether gold is bullish. The question is where buyers will find value on the next retracement. WEEKLY TIMEFRAME The weekly structure is extremely important. The previous resistance that capped price has now been broken with significant displacement. That breakout creates a structural shift: Resistance → breakout → acceptance → potential support → continuation The next major structural objective we're mapping is the 4,800s, with 4,810 being the current longer term target. This isn't a random upside number. The target comes from projecting the existing weekly structure into the next major area of historical price interaction/liquidity. So our weekly roadmap becomes: Current price → retracement → continuation → 4,800s rather than trying to sell the market simply because it has already moved significantly. WEEKLY ORDER BLOCK BREAK Another important development is the weekly close above the bearish order block. This is significant because price has effectively moved through an area where sellers previously had control. Instead of rejecting from that area, price has closed above it. That tells us the market is accepting higher prices. One distinction, however: A candle closing above an order block demonstrates price acceptance and momentum. It does not by itself prove increased volume unless we confirm the actual volume data. But from a pure price action perspective, the close is extremely bullish. We now want to see whether that former bearish zone becomes support on a retracement. That would strengthen the continuation thesis considerably. THE TREND LINE The trend line is another piece of confluence. For the last two weeks, price has respected this ascending trend line as dynamic support. This gives us another potential roadmap: Pullback into trend-line support → reaction → continuation The important thing is not simply whether price touches the trend line. We want to see whether price reacts from it. A sweep below the trend line followed by a reclaim could actually provide an even stronger setup because it would potentially clear downside liquidity before the next bullish expansion. DAILY TIMEFRAME The daily timeframe gives us further confirmation. We have: Breakout → strong bullish engulfing → failed bearish continuation → retest → second bullish engulfing That sequence is powerful. The first bullish displacement demonstrated buyers were capable of breaking the structure. The bearish attempt then failed. Price retested the area. And instead of allowing sellers to regain control, another bullish engulfing candle printed. That is exactly the type of behaviour we want to see when building a continuation narrative. The market isn't simply moving higher. It is rejecting attempts to move lower. That distinction matters. DAILY NARRATIVE The daily structure therefore remains: Bullish above the breakout structure. As long as price continues making: HH → HL → HH → HL there is no reason to fight the trend. Our job is to identify the next HL. And that brings us down to the 4H timeframe. 4H TIMEFRAME The 4H gives us the first real possibility of a retracement. We have a broken trend line. Whenever a major trend line breaks after an extended move, there is a possibility of: Break → retest → continuation This is where patience becomes important. We don't want to assume that every pullback is bearish. A pullback into broken resistance/support can simply be the market creating the next higher low. THE 4H CONFLUENCE ZONE This is where analysis becomes particularly interesting. You have identified several pieces of confluence around the 4,535 area. Confluence 1 — Previous Support The previous support area provides the first structural reason for price to potentially react. Confluence 2 — Previous Trading Zone Previous trading zone overlaps this region, giving us another area where price has already demonstrated interaction. Confluence 3 — Fibonacci The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement also aligns with this same area. So instead of having one reason to watch 4,535, we have multiple independent reasons: Previous support Previous trading zone Trend-line/retest structure 0.618 Fibonacci** That creates a much more meaningful POI/AOI. WHY THE RETRACEMENT MAKES SENSE The market has moved aggressively. When price expands this quickly, it doesn't necessarily mean the trend is ending. It can simply mean the market needs to rebalance. A retracement into 4,535 would allow price to: - take liquidity - rebalance the previous expansion - retest broken structure - mitigate the trading zone - interact with the 0.618 - establish a new higher low - provide fresh liquidity for continuation That is why I would rather see gold come back into value than chase it at the highs. BUYING PLAN The broader idea is: BUY AREA: 4,535 INVALIDATION: below previous lows / 4,447 TARGET: 4,810 That gives 3.1R before considering management or scaling. But the important part is: 4,535 is an area, not an automatic market buy price. I would want price action confirmation inside the zone. For example: Liquidity sweep → bullish displacement → structure shift → FVG/retest → continuation That gives us the execution model. THE IMPORTANT PART DON'T CHASE THE WEEKLY CANDLE This is where the analysis needs discipline. The bullish bias is strong. But strong bullish bias does not mean buying anywhere. Gold has already travelled a significant distance. If price continues directly higher, we allow it to go. We don't need to chase. If price retraces into our POI and gives confirmation, then we have a high quality opportunity. This keeps the analysis objective: Bullish bias ≠ blind entry. MACRO WHY THE FUNDAMENTAL BACKDROP SUPPORTS GOLD The technical structure is bullish, but the macro backdrop is also providing fuel. 1. U.S. Dollar Weakness The recent gold rally has coincided with a weaker dollar. Reuters reported that gold reached a three month high as the dollar weakened, with the metal also moving above its 200-day moving average. This matters because gold is dollar-denominated. A weaker USD generally makes gold cheaper for non-dollar buyers and can increase demand. The dollar's weakness has also been connected to concerns surrounding U.S. fiscal policy and Treasury market intervention. 2. U.S. TREASURY VERY IMPORTANT This is one of the biggest macro developments behind the recent move. The U.S. Treasury announced that it would significantly increase its buyback operations for longer dated Treasury securities. That immediately pushed long term Treasury yields lower. The 30 year Treasury yield fell almost 10 basis points following the announcement. The immediate market reaction was: Treasury buybacks → lower long-end yields → weaker USD → stronger gold That relationship was visible directly in the market. But there is another side to this. The U.S. debt situation remains a concern, with U.S. government debt now above $40 trillion, and investors continue to question the long term implications of fiscal deficits and Treasury-market intervention. That creates another fundamental reason for investors to maintain exposure to hard assets such as gold. BUT WATCH THE YIELDS We cannot simply say: Buybacks = lower yields = gold higher. The relationship is more complicated. After the initial Treasury announcement, yields rebounded as markets continued to worry about inflation, fiscal deficits and the supply of government debt. Therefore, going into the new week I would watch: DXY U.S. 10Y yield U.S. 30Y yield The strongest bullish environment for gold would be: DXY ↓ Yields ↓ Gold ↑ But gold has already demonstrated something important: It can continue rising even while yields remain elevated if the dollar is weakening and investors are seeking fiscal/safe-haven protection. 3. FEDERAL RESERVE The Fed is another major catalyst. The July FOMC meeting kept the federal funds target at 3.50%–3.75%, with the decision passing 9–3. Several participants wanted a 25bp increase because they remained concerned about inflation. This means the Fed is not simply dovish. Inflation remains a major issue. The July minutes showed PCE inflation was still elevated, with tariff effects, higher energy/input costs and other pressures contributing to inflation. So we have an interesting macro battle: Hawkish Fed → potentially bearish gold versus Fiscal concerns + weaker USD + Treasury intervention + safe-haven demand → bullish gold At the moment, price is telling us the second narrative is winning. SEPTEMBER FED MEETING The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15–16. That means the market has a major catalyst approaching. The key data between now and then will determine whether expectations shift toward: Hike → potentially bearish gold or Hold / eventual easing → potentially bullish gold The important thing is not to predict the Fed. Watch how DXY and Treasury yields react to the data. That will tell us whether the macro environment is confirming or fighting our technical setup. JACKSON HOLE Next week also brings the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to speak on August 28. That could become a major volatility event for gold. If the Fed communicates a more restrictive stance: USD ↑ Yields ↑ Gold could retrace If the messaging acknowledges weaker growth/labour conditions and opens the door to easier policy: USD ↓ Yields ↓ Gold could accelerate So if gold is approaching 4,800 during this period, expect volatility rather than a straight line. 4. CENTRAL BANK GOLD DEMAND There is also a longer term fundamental tailwind. The World Gold Council's 2026 central-bank survey found that 89% of reserve managers expect global central bank gold holdings to increase over the following 12 months, while 45% expect their own holdings to increase. That matters because central bank demand isn't based purely on short term technical levels. It reflects a broader desire to diversify reserves. So underneath the short term trading structure there is a longer term fundamental bid for gold. 5. GEOPOLITICAL / SAFE-HAVEN DEMAND Geopolitical risk is another variable supporting gold. Recent market commentary has highlighted continued uncertainty surrounding the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside concerns about energy prices. Higher energy prices can create a difficult environment for central banks: Energy ↑ → inflation pressure ↑ → Fed becomes more cautious But simultaneously: Geopolitical risk ↑ → safe-haven demand ↑ Gold can therefore remain supported even when monetary policy is not outright dovish. FUNDAMENTAL + TECHNICAL ALIGNMENT This is what makes the current setup interesting. TECHNICAL Weekly breakout ✅ Three bullish weekly candles ✅ Break above weekly bearish OB ✅ Daily breakout ✅ Bullish engulfing confirmation ✅ Failed bearish continuation ✅ 4H trend-line break/retest potential ✅ Previous support alignment ✅ Trading-zone alignment ✅ 0.618 Fibonacci alignment ✅ MACRO Dollar weakness ✅ Treasury buyback intervention ✅ Fiscal/debt concerns ✅ Safe-haven demand ✅ Central-bank gold demand ✅ Potential monetary-policy repricing ⚠️ Jackson Hole catalyst ⚠️ September FOMC catalyst ⚠️ The bullish case therefore has multiple independent drivers. NEW WEEK ROADMAP BULLISH SCENARIO Gold retraces into: 4,535 area Price sweeps liquidity / taps the confluence zone. Then we wait for: Bullish displacement → LTF structure shift → FVG/retest → continuation Targets: 4,600 → 4,650 → 4,700 → 4,800 → 4,810 The exact management can be built around each structural expansion. SHALLOW RETRACEMENT If gold refuses to retrace all the way to 4,535, we don't force it. The market could create a higher low closer to the current price. In that situation, we map the new intraday structure and wait for confirmation. The principle remains: Let price show us where the next higher low is. BEARISH INVALIDATION / WARNING A bullish thesis does not mean the market cannot retrace deeply. The important distinction is retracement versus structural failure. If gold loses the higher timeframe support structure and begins accepting below the key 4,535 region, the continuation thesis weakens. A deeper move toward the 4,447 area would then become increasingly relevant. A sustained break below the previous major lows would invalidate the current bullish continuation structure. Until that happens, bearish moves should initially be treated as potential retracements, not automatically as a trend reversal. THE BIG PICTURE The market has already done the hard part. It broke the resistance. It broke the bearish order block. It produced three consecutive bullish weekly candles. The daily timeframe confirmed the breakout. The 4H has given us a potential retracement structure. Now we're waiting for the market to give us value. The target remains: 🏆 4,810 But the path matters. We don't need gold to go directly there. We want: Expansion → retracement → liquidity → support → confirmation → expansion And the current area around 4,535 is interesting because the technical confluences are beginning to stack: Previous support + previous trading zone + broken trend-line structure + 0.618 Fibonacci = potential higher low location The macro backdrop is also giving the bullish thesis support through dollar weakness, Treasury-market concerns, safe-haven demand and continued central-bank interest in gold. But the next week also brings Jackson Hole and increasing attention toward the September Fed meeting, so volatility must be respected. Final bias: WEEKLY: 🟢 BULLISH DAILY: 🟢 BULLISH 4H: 🟢 BULLISH — WAITING FOR RETRACEMENT MACRO: 🟢/🟡 SUPPORTIVE BUT EVENT-DRIVEN PRIMARY POI: 4,535 STRUCTURAL TARGET: 4,800s CURRENT TARGET: 4,810 The biggest lesson for the new week: Don't chase the breakout. Trade the structure that the breakout creates. If gold gives us the retracement into our POI and then confirms buyers are still present, we have a very different trade from simply buying because gold is going up. The trend has already told us its direction. Now we wait for price to tell us where it wants to continue from.