XAU/USD — Gold Holds Above 4600, But Don’t ChaseGold / U.S. DollarFOREXCOM:XAUUSDCatherine_XAUUSD 🟡 XAU/USD — Gold Holds Above 4600, But Don’t Chase My Bias: Bullish, but cautious at the highs. Gold opened slightly higher on Monday but quickly showed some weakness. After last week’s aggressive rally and the breakout above 4500 and 4600, I believe the market now needs to digest some of those gains. The bigger trend is still constructive, but personally, I don't think this is the area to blindly chase longs. I prefer buying controlled pullbacks while keeping an eye on the possibility of a deeper correction. 🌎 Fundamental View One of the biggest catalysts behind last week's rally was the unexpected expansion of the US Treasury buyback program. The announcement triggered a sharp decline in the USD and pushed Gold through the 4500 and 4600 resistance levels. However, this rally was heavily influenced by a sudden fundamental catalyst, which means part of the move may be driven by short-term positioning and market sentiment. The USD Index has now shown signs of a short-term rebound after two consecutive sessions of recovery. That could create some temporary pressure on Gold. But there is an important point: The USD remains below its 200-day and 200-week moving averages, so the broader dollar structure is still relatively weak. For me, this means: USD rebound = short-term headwind for Gold but USD below major long-term resistance = limited downside pressure on Gold So I’m watching the dollar closely, but I’m not ready to turn bearish on Gold yet. 📊 Technical Picture The daily structure has improved after last week's strong move. Gold broke above 4500 and 4600, and the weekly candle closed strongly bullish. However, the price action has been somewhat messy. We saw a bearish move through the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, followed by a sharp bullish reversal driven by the Treasury announcement. That tells me the current rally has a strong emotional component. At the same time, the daily indicators are showing signs of significant bearish divergence. This doesn't mean the trend has already reversed. But it does mean: ⚠️ Upside momentum is becoming less reliable. I would rather wait for confirmation than assume every dip is automatically a buying opportunity. 🎯 Key Levels 🔴 Resistance 4650–4655 This is the first intraday resistance zone. If Gold breaks and holds above this area, the next major target is: 4700 🟢 First Support 4600–4610 This is the most important short-term area for me. If Gold pulls back into this zone and buyers defend it, the bullish structure remains attractive. 🟢 Deeper Support 4560–4540 If 4600 fails decisively, I will watch this area for the next potential bullish reaction. The daily 5MA around 4520–4530 is another important reference. 💰 GOLD TRADING PLAN 🟢 LONG SETUP BUY: 4600–4610 🛑 STOP LOSS: 4580 🎯 TP1: 4640 🎯 TP2: 4650 I prefer a light position here and would only add exposure if price confirms that 4600 has turned into support. 🔴 COUNTER-TREND SHORT If Gold reaches 4670–4680 and shows clear rejection or signs of exhaustion, I would consider a small counter-trend short. SELL: 4670–4680 🛑 STOP LOSS: Above 4690 🎯 TP1: 4640 🎯 TP2: 4630 This is not my primary setup. The higher-timeframe trend is still bullish, so any short should remain lightly positioned and confirmation-based. 🧠 My Personal View I’m still on the bullish side, but I’m becoming more selective. After such a strong move, the market doesn't need another immediate vertical rally. It may simply need to: Consolidate → Shake out weak hands → Retest support → Continue higher That's the scenario I’m watching. I don't want to buy because Gold is going up. I want to buy because price pulls back into support and gives me a reason to enter. For me, 4600 is now the key battleground. If it holds, I remain bullish toward 4650 and potentially 4700. If 4600 breaks, I won't panic or immediately call a top. I'll simply wait for the next important support around 4560–4540. 🔥 My Game Plan 📈 Bias: Bullish 🎯 Main Support: 4600–4610 🎯 Next Support: 4560–4540 🔴 Resistance: 4650–4655 🚀 Major Target: 4700 Don't chase the candle. Trade the level. ❤️ Like if you agree with the bullish Gold structure. ➕ Follow me for more XAU/USD setups and market updates. 💬 Comment your view: Will 4600 hold as new support, or do we see a deeper pullback toward 4560 first? 🟢 LONG — 4600–4610 🔴 SHORT — 4670–4680 rejection Let’s see which side controls the next move. 📈🔥