Gold Consolidating Before Resuming Its RiseGoldOANDA:XAUUSDNouzTraderGold prices (XAU/USD) XAUUSD extended their massive breakout momentum beyond the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), surging above US$4,650 per troy ounce during Monday's Asian trading session. This surge pushed the precious metal to fresh highs not seen since mid-May. The rally was fueled by receding speculation regarding Federal Reserve monetary tightening, a pledge for more aggressive bond buyback interventions by the US Treasury, and threats from Tehran to completely blockade the Strait of Hormuz. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ US Macro Duality: Bessent’s Aggressive Buyback Pledge ($4B+) vs. September FOMC Expectations & PCE/Jackson Hole Drivers within the US bond and interest rate markets have created a liquidity environment highly favorable to precious metals: - ⚡Aggressive Buyback Intervention by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed the government's readiness to intervene more aggressively should bond yields rise again. Following the announcement to double long-term debt buyback operations starting in September, Bessent assured the market that buyback volumes could exceed US$4 billion per issuance. This move, reflecting fiscal dominance, has prevented a sharp rise in US bond yields and kept the US Dollar (USD) near three-month lows. - ⚡Shift in September FOMC Expectations & Anticipation of PCE Data/Jackson Hole: Milder inflation data for July has shifted market consensus toward a scenario where interest rates are held steady at the September 15–16 FOMC meeting. Market participants are now focused on Wednesday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the speech by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ Gulf Kinetic Escalation: Bessent’s "Heaviest Sanctions in History" vs. Mohsen Rezaei’s Threat of War Rhetoric regarding economic and military confrontation in the Persian Gulf has reached a critical threshold: - ⚡Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s Sanctions Announcement: Treasury Secretary Bessent is scheduled to announce financial sanctions against Iran—described by him as the "heaviest sanctions in history"—during a press conference on Monday. - ⚡Threat to Halt Oil Exports & Mohsen Rezaei’s Declaration of War: Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, warned that Tehran is prepared to halt all oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf if the economic war continues. Rezaei emphasized that any nation's participation in US sanctions would be considered an act of war against Iran. - ⚡Geopolitical Risk Premium Supports USD: Threats to close the Persian Gulf are keeping the "war risk premium" in play, limiting further declines in the US Dollar and requiring gold buyers to remain vigilant against rapid profit-taking. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ✅ XAU/USD Technical Analysis (Following the May Peak Breakout) Technically, on the 4-hour (H4) chart, XAU/USD is in a bullish expansion phase: - ⚡Dominant Bullish Structure: A price surge beyond US$4,650 confirms the strength of the daily uptrend. As long as the spot price holds above the US$4,580 support base, the bullish structure remains very solid. - ⚡Next Resistance Target: A clean break above US$4,655 would pave the way for upward expansion toward the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement target at US$4,687, before potentially testing the record high of US$4,889. - Re-entry Zone: In the event of a corrective pullback, the US$4,580 and US$4,529 (61.8% Fibonacci) levels act as the primary defensive base for buyers (buyers' demand zone).