Dollar-loonie bounces with renewed focus on the trade warUS Dollar vs. Canadian DollarFX:USDCADMichael_Stark_ExnessUnlike some other major forex pairs which recently seem to have moved more on the conflict in the Gulf and expectations for monetary policy, USDCAD moved up recently as trade talks between the USA and Canada collapsed. The Canadian government views American demands as being excessive so withdrew from discussed and announced reciprocal tariffs. The impact is likely to be more negative for the loonie with a hike by the BoC before the end of the year now seeming very unlikely. The bounce so far from around $1.375 has been fairly aggressive and the slow stochastic no longer signals selling saturation being now close to neutral. Currently the price is testing the 20 SMA having broken above the 200 on 26 August. If recent gains continue, the convergence of the 100 SMA with the 61.8% weekly Fibonacci retracement around $1.396 is a possibly strong resistance while the 50% Fibo around $1.41 is a possible longer term resistance. Volatility has remained relatively high for USDCAD over summer after a lull in late May. An immediate movement back down to three-month lows around $1.375 seems unlikely unless Kevin Warsh’s upcoming remarks at Jackson Hole are interpreted as being particularly hawkish. The main event next week is the concurrent release of both the USA and Canada’s job reports for August. This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.