The shift among major bank economists toward a near certain RBA hike this year materially changes the near term outlook for Australian rates markets. With CBA's move, six of the seven institutions covered in this post now expect at least one more increase, with the main point of debate now the timing rather than the direction, split between a September and a November move. That should keep upward pressure on short end bond yields and the Australian dollar into the September 28 to 29 meeting, with markets likely to treat every piece of data between now and then, including August labour force figures and GDP, as a live input into whether the RBA moves early or waits for the fuller picture from the August CPI print (30 September), then September picture landing on 28 October, just ahead of the 2–3 November meeting.. Westpac's continued outlier position, still expecting a hold, means any further data surprise in either direction has scope to move the consensus again.---Almost every major bank now expects the RBA to hike again this year, with only the timing, and Westpac, still up for debate.Summary:CBA has switched its call to a 25bp RBA hike in November to 4.60%, saying the broad based upside surprise in July's CPI has crossed the threshold needed to trigger further tightening, while flagging some risk of an earlier September move (CBA note, 27 August)ANZ expects a November hike to 4.60%, with head of Australian economics Adam Boyton saying the data show inflation risks are closer to crystallising (Reuters)Goldman Sachs has also moved to a November hike call, joining ANZ (AFR)Citi's Josh Williamson sees the cash rate at 4.6% this year, having previously flagged November, and says the risks are tilting toward further rather than fewer hikes (AFR)UBS economist Stephen Wu says a November hike is more likely than September, arguing an earlier move would signal the RBA sees itself as behind the curve and could open the door to multiple hikes (Reuters)NAB now expects a September hike to 4.6%, saying July's CPI ran hotter than the RBA anticipated and that the central bank has repeatedly signalled it would act if upside inflation risks were realised (Reuters)Deutsche Bank also tips a September hike, with chief economist Phil O'Donaghoe describing July's trimmed mean inflation as intolerably high (AAP)Westpac remains the outlier on direction, still expecting the RBA to hold rates for the rest of the year despite the hot CPI print, citing stable housing costs and a softer labour market and wage outlook (Westpac note)National Australia Bank and Commonwealth Bank have become the latest major banks to switch to expect a 25 basis point hike in November that would take the cash rate to 4.60 per cent. In a note from its Global Economic and Markets Research team, CBA's head of Australian economics Belinda Allen said the broad based upside surprise in July's CPI had crossed the threshold needed to materially increase the likelihood of another hike, describing the reading as the final straw after months of RBA commentary emphasising a low tolerance for further inflation surprises. The bank flagged 2 to 3 November as the most likely meeting, following the September quarter CPI on October 28, but said it could not rule out an earlier move at the September 28 to 29 meeting given the RBA's recent rhetoric.NAB and CBA's move brings them into line with a growing majority of major bank and institutional forecasters, though the group remains split on timing. ANZ was among the first to shift, with head of Australian economics Adam Boyton saying the July data suggested inflation risks flagged in the RBA's August minutes were closer to crystallising, prompting a move to a November hike call. Goldman Sachs joined ANZ on a November call the same day,. Citi's Josh Williamson, who had previously pencilled in a November increase, told the AFR he now sees the cash rate at 4.6 per cent this year, with risks tilted toward further rather than fewer hikes. UBS economist Stephen Wu has argued a November move remains more likely than September, saying an earlier hike would signal the RBA sees itself as behind the curve and could open the door to a longer tightening cycle, whereas a September meeting could instead be used to lay the groundwork for a move in November.On the other side of the timing debate, NAB has moved to expect a September hike, also to 4.6 per cent. In a note to clients, NAB economists said July's CPI data showed inflation running hotter than the RBA had expected as recently as early August, and pointed to the central bank's repeated signalling in recent weeks that the Monetary Policy Board would act if upside risks to inflation were realised. Deutsche Bank holds the same September view, with chief economist Phil O'Donaghoe describing July's trimmed mean inflation as intolerably high and arguing there is little to be gained by waiting for November, though he acknowledged more dovish board members may prefer to delay.Westpac is the most notable holdout on direction altogether. The bank has said it still expects the RBA to hold rates for the remainder of the year, arguing that housing cost inflation remained broadly as expected in July and that a softer labour market and weaker wage outcomes reduce the likelihood of a November move, even as it acknowledges the risk of a hike has increased.CBA's note said the case for further tightening was reinforced by signs businesses are able to pass on higher costs, the ongoing supply shock from the Middle East conflict, the Fair Work Commission's award wage decision flowing through to labour intensive services, and continued resilience in discretionary spending. The bank still expects the economy and labour market to moderate enough to allow rate cuts in 2027, pencilling in May and August as the likely timing, but said a November hike would reflect near term inflation persistence rather than a materially stronger growth outlook. This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.