GOLD XAU Before Breakout Market RetestGoldOANDA:XAUUSDqasimsaleemCurrent Market Overview This week, gold launched its second upward leg from the double-bottom support at 4,310, breaking through two major psychological levels at 4,500 and 4,600 in succession. Gold has now firmly established itself above the 200-day moving average (located near $4,513), with the technical picture turning fully bullish. Technical Analysis Daily Chart (Daily) Trend: Strongly bullish; candles riding steadily above short-term moving averages 200 MA: $4,513 — effectively breached and held Candlestick Pattern :Large bullish candle composition shows a bullish alignment RSI: Approaching overbought territory; watch for near-term corrective needs MACD: Bullish momentum continues to expand; the fast and slow lines are widening apart On the daily chart, after breaking out of the previous narrow consolidation range, gold continues to track steadily above the short-term moving averages. The medium-term upside likely still has room to run. To the upside, focus on the $4,750–$4,760 resistance band. Key Levels LevelPrice ZoneDescription Major Resistance$4,750–$4,760Daily chart core resistance zone Secondary Resistance$4,638–$4,655Strong near-term hurdle; break targets $4,700 Immediate Resistance$4,615–$4,632Friday's high area Current Price~$4,603Friday's closing level Immediate Support$4,580–$4,560First pullback support zone Core Support$4,550–$4,560Key 4H support level Strong Support$4,540–$4,530Break below targets $4,500–$4,450 Ultimate Support$4,490–$4,500Dense bullish order block zone Key Events Next Week: Markets will closely monitor the July PCE Price Index released next week, along with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium. These two events will be the key catalysts for the next round of policy signals. Core View: Pullback First, Then Stabilization and Recovery Bullish Scenario Trigger Conditions: Price holds the $4,550–$4,560 support zone and shows signs of stabilization Upside Targets: $4,600 → $4,630–$4,632 → $4,700 Rationale: The USD weakness narrative remains intact; fiscal concerns persist; the medium-term bullish trend is well-established Bearish/Correction Scenario Trigger Conditions: 4H bearish divergence triggers a technical pullback Downside Targets: $4,580 → $4,550–$4,560 → $4,490–$4,500 Rationale: Short-term overbought conditions + bearish divergence signals; long profit-taking is needed to digest gains 📌 Overall Judgment Tomorrow is likely to see a pullback first, followed by a recovery higher. The broader trend remains bullish, but the ascent will not be linear — a healthy retracement is needed to digest short-term long positions. Pullback Range: Expected to find support around the $4,550–$4,580 region Post-Stabilization Target: Re-testing the $4,600–$4,630 zone Risk Warning: If $4,550 is effectively broken to the downside, a further decline toward $4,490–$4,500 could unfold.