AFRM Earnings Deep Dive — Current Scenario MapAffirm Holdings, Inc. Class ABATS:AFRMheavydiligenceAFRM reports Thursday after the close, and this is one of the more interesting earnings setups on next week’s board because the chart gives us a very clean two-sided battlefield. The options market is currently pricing roughly a 13% move, which from the current area around $77 puts the expected range roughly near: Upside: ~$87 Downside: ~$67 That lines up extremely well with the structure on the chart. Key areas I’m watching: 79 — key upside break 77 — current pivot / negotiation area 75 — first downside level 71–73 — major lower structural zone ~67 — roughly the downside implied-move area Current scenario weighting Green — 39% The bullish path begins with 79. A simple spike above 79 is not enough. What I want to see is: 79 break → hold/retest → acceptance → 83–88 That upper area overlaps closely with the options-implied move. If AFRM gets there and holds after a controlled pullback, that could create the kind of post-earnings continuation setup I look for. But if AFRM violently spikes into the upper-80s and immediately rejects the move, the exact same bullish reaction could instead become an overreaction setup. The direction of the first move does not determine the trade. The behavior afterward does. Yellow — 27% Yellow is the “big volatility, little structural progress” scenario. AFRM could spend the days leading into earnings negotiating around 75–79, then even after the report produce a sharp move that ultimately falls back into the same larger structure. That would tell me the market moved, but never really established acceptance at a new price. In that environment I’m not interested in forcing something just because earnings created volatility. Sometimes the correct trade is no trade. Red — 34% Below 75, the next major area becomes the 71–73 zone. If AFRM sells through that area and continues toward 67–68, we are getting very close to the downside options-implied move. That becomes particularly interesting for an overreaction setup. What I would want to see: violent selloff → structural area reached or exceeded → rejection → reclaim I do not want to catch the falling knife. I want evidence that the market pushed too far and is beginning to take the price back. The alternative is bearish continuation: 75 breaks → 71–73 fails → reclaim attempts fail → lower structure begins forming If that happens, the market is accepting lower prices and there is no reason to assume the selloff has to reverse. Why Green gets the slight edge The higher-timeframe structure is still constructive. AFRM has made a substantial recovery from its lows, the underlying business has been improving, and buyers have repeatedly returned after meaningful pullbacks. But the edge is small. Expectations are high, the stock has already had a strong run, and AFRM has historically been capable of very large earnings reactions in either direction. So I’m not interested in turning 39% Green into “AFRM is going up.” That’s not what the weighting means. It simply means that, based on the evidence available today, I think the bullish scenario currently deserves slightly more weight than the alternatives. How I trade earnings I generally do not hold through earnings. Doing that requires me to predict both the company’s results and how the market will react to those results. I’d rather wait. The two setups I most often look for after earnings are: Continuation Initial move → retest → hold → new structure → continuation Overreaction Violent extension → rejection → reclaim And either can occur in either direction. A bullish earnings spike can become an overreaction short. A bearish earnings gap can become the continuation trade. These scenario paths are not trade commands. They are maps designed to help me recognize what the market is actually doing after the report. Current weighting 🟢 Green 39% 🟡 Yellow 27% 🔴 Red 34% These are current scenario weights, not fixed predictions. I’ll revisit AFRM Monday and again as we get closer to Thursday’s report. If price structure, implied move, broader market conditions, or new information changes, the weighting should change with it. The analysis should change when the evidence changes.