The USDCAD bottomed last Friday at 1.37315 before gapping higher over the weekend after trade talks between the U.S. and Canada soured. The deterioration in trade relations helped fuel upside momentum, taking the pair back above the 100-hour moving average, the 200-day moving average, and the 200-hour moving average.The advance continued yesterday, with the price also breaking above the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the July 28 high at 1.3882. The rally ultimately reached 1.38922.Today, however, buyers could only push the price to 1.3891—just short of yesterday’s high. The failure to extend to a new high, followed by a move back below the 38.2% retracement at 1.3882, gave sellers the go-ahead to push the pair lower.The price has since fallen to a low of 1.3853 and is approaching a key cluster of moving-average support between 1.38376 and 1.38430. That area includes the rising 100-hour moving average, the 200-day moving average, and the 200-hour moving average.What happens next?The moving-average cluster is now the key short-term barometer for buyers and sellers.If the area holds, buyers would retain a puncher’s chance of restarting the move higher. However, they would still need to reclaim the swing area between 1.3868 and 1.3877, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 1.3882, to rebuild the bullish bias.Above those levels, buyers would need to break through the highs from yesterday and today near 1.3892. The more important upside hurdle remains the 100-day moving average at 1.39136. Ultimately, if buyers are going to take firmer control, the price needs to get above that moving average—and stay above it.Conversely, a break below the moving-average cluster at 1.38376–1.38430 would tilt the short-term bias more firmly in favor of sellers and increase the potential for additional downside momentum This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.